Is Bilibili Finally Offering Value After Its 2025 Share Price Rebound?

• If you are wondering whether Bilibili is finally starting to look like value rather than just a story stock, you are not alone. This is exactly what we are going to unpack.
• The share price is up 41.7% year to date and 23.9% over the last year. It has slipped slightly by 1.3% over the past week and 4.1% over the last month, reminding investors that the ride is still bumpy after a 70.4% drop over 5 years.
• Much of this renewed interest has been driven by optimism around Bilibili's progress in tightening its cost structure and refocusing on higher quality revenue streams. This has shifted how investors think about its long term path to sustainable profitability. At the same time, regulatory headlines around Chinese internet platforms have become a little less confrontational lately, giving risk appetites some room to recover.
• On our framework Bilibili scores a 3/6 valuation score, meaning it looks undervalued on half of our checks. In the next sections we will walk through those methods, then finish with a more holistic way to think about the company’s true worth beyond the usual models.

Find out why Bilibili's 23.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today.

For Bilibili, the model starts from last twelve month free cash flow of about CN¥4.7 billion and projects how this could develop as the business scales. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years, and beyond that Simply Wall St extrapolates a more gradual trajectory, with free cash flow expected to reach roughly CN¥9.1 billion by 2035. These future cash flows are then discounted to reflect risk and the time value of money, using a two stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework.

On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $36.65 per share, implying the stock is trading at a 33.8% discount to its estimated fair value. In other words, the current market price embeds a more cautious outlook than the cash flow projections suggest.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 33.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 918 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bilibili.

Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Earnings

For companies that are either profitable or moving toward more stable earnings, the price to earnings ratio is often the clearest shorthand for how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of profit. The higher the expected growth and the lower the perceived risk, the more investors typically accept a higher, or “richer”, PE multiple as normal.

Bilibili is currently trading on a PE of about 91.8x, which is far above both the Interactive Media and Services industry average of roughly 16.3x and the broader peer group average of about 15.0x. At first glance, that kind of premium might suggest the stock is priced for very strong growth, leaving less room for error.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by asking what PE multiple Bilibili should reasonably command once you factor in its earnings growth outlook, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks. On this basis, Bilibili’s Fair Ratio is around 31.4x, well below the current 91.8x. Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to the company’s own fundamentals rather than just broad peer comparisons, it provides a more grounded anchor for valuation and implies the shares still look expensive relative to what its earnings profile justifies.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Bilibili’s story with the numbers behind it, including your assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and ultimately fair value.

A Narrative is your own storyline for a company, where you spell out what you think will drive the business, translate that into a financial forecast, and then see what fair value that story implies.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an easy, accessible tool used by millions of investors to link a company’s story to a forecast and fair value, then compare that fair value to today’s share price to decide whether it looks like a buy, hold or sell.

Because Narratives update dynamically when new information arrives, such as earnings results or news about Bilibili’s game launches, your fair value view can evolve in real time without starting from scratch.

For example, one Bilibili Narrative might be very bullish, assuming faster revenue growth, higher margins and a fair value closer to the high analyst target around $37.73. In contrast, a more cautious Narrative might lean toward slower growth, tighter margins and a fair value nearer the low target of $22.14. Yet both are valid perspectives that you can compare directly to the current price.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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