Is United States Antimony (UAMY) Overvalued After 590% YTD Surge? A Deep Dive Into the Numbers

United States Antimony (UAMY) has captured some attention lately, following a steady climb over the past month that has lifted the stock by 80%. This jump stands out in comparison to the broader materials sector.

See our latest analysis for United States Antimony.

Zooming out, United States Antimony’s share price has not just surged in recent weeks. Its year-to-date rise exceeds 590%, and the total shareholder return over the last year is a remarkable 1,800%. Momentum has clearly shifted in its favor as investors have started to factor in both growth potential and a shift in risk appetite.

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But with United States Antimony’s meteoric rise, the key question for investors now becomes clear: is all the optimism already reflected in the current price, or does UAMY still offer a compelling buying opportunity?

Most Popular Narrative: 60% Overvalued

United States Antimony’s last close of $12.01 is nearly double the most widely followed narrative’s fair value estimate. To understand what’s driving this perspective, let’s look at a key catalyst identified in the narrative itself.

The company is in late-stage discussions with U.S. government agencies (including DoD and DLA) regarding critical mineral offtake and funding. Any resulting contracts or incentives would provide long-term, recurring, premium-priced revenue and earnings, leveraging the strategic value of being the only domestic antimony processor as U.S. policy shifts toward supply chain security and China de-risking.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know how these government talks and industry trends factor into the valuation? The narrative relies on bold future profit assumptions, steep revenue growth, and a rapid turnaround. These factors drive a fair value far below today’s rally price. Discover the specific projections and the financial logic used to justify them when you read the full story.

Result: Fair Value of $7.50 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, significant permitting delays and regulatory scrutiny could postpone new production. This could put future revenue growth and margin expansion at risk.

Find out about the key risks to this United States Antimony narrative.

Build Your Own United States Antimony Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can quickly build your own perspective. Do it your way with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your United States Antimony research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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