Ternium S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$4.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 87% to hit US$0.10 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ternium's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$17.3b in 2026. This reflects a meaningful 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 32% to US$3.94. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$17.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.03 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ternium

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$35.96, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ternium analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Ternium shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.9% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.5% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.9% per year. It's clear that while Ternium's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ternium. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ternium. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Ternium analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Ternium (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.