Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Ternium Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Ternium had US$1.48b of debt in December 2021, down from US$1.72b, one year before. However, it does have US$2.57b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of US$1.09b.
How Strong Is Ternium's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Ternium had liabilities of US$3.21b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.65b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$2.57b in cash and US$2.12b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$170.9m.
Of course, Ternium has a market capitalization of US$8.06b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Ternium boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
Better yet, Ternium grew its EBIT by 389% last year, which is an impressive improvement. That boost will make it even easier to pay down debt going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ternium can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Ternium has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Ternium produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 55% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Summing up
While it is always sensible to look at a company's total liabilities, it is very reassuring that Ternium has US$1.09b in net cash. And we liked the look of last year's 389% year-on-year EBIT growth. So we don't think Ternium's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Ternium is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:TX
Ternium
Manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and fair value.