Is Nucor Still Attractive After Its 42% Surge in 2025?

• Wondering if Nucor is still a good buy after its run up, or if you have missed the moment? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price really stacks up against its fundamentals.
• The stock has climbed 2.6% over the last week, 9.8% over the past month, and is up 41.7% year to date after a 36.5% gain over the last year. This has put it firmly on the radar of both value and momentum investors.
• Recent moves have been driven by a mix of optimism around US infrastructure and manufacturing trends, alongside renewed attention on steel producers that can benefit from reshoring and higher domestic demand. Nucor has also featured in industry roundups highlighting its investments in cleaner steel technologies and capacity expansions, which investors see as supporting long term earnings power.
• Right now, Nucor scores a solid 5 out of 6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued on most metrics. Next we will unpack those methods step by step before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the stock is truly worth.

Find out why Nucor's 36.5% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: Nucor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to the present. For Nucor, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach that builds on recent free cash flow and expected growth.

Nucor generated around $413.5 Million in free cash flow over the last twelve months. Analysts provide detailed forecasts for the next few years. Based on those, Simply Wall St extrapolates further out, with free cash flow projected to rise to roughly $10.7 Billion by 2035 as the business scales and margins normalize over time.

When all of those future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $571.67 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at roughly a 71.6% discount to its estimated fair value, indicating a substantial margin of safety for long term investors according to this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Nucor is undervalued by 71.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 914 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Nucor.

Approach 2: Nucor Price vs Earnings

For a profitable, established business like Nucor, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a practical way to see what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects and lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher PE, while slower growing or more cyclical names usually trade on lower multiples.

Nucor currently trades on a PE of about 22.5x, which sits below both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 24.3x and the broader peer group average of around 37.2x. On the surface, that suggests the market is valuing Nucor more conservatively than many of its competitors despite its scale and positioning.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio for Nucor of about 29.1x. This is the PE the company might reasonably trade on given its earnings growth outlook, profitability, risk profile, industry and market cap. This tailored benchmark is more insightful than a simple peer or sector comparison because it adjusts for the specific characteristics of Nucor rather than assuming all steel producers should trade alike. Since the current PE of 22.5x is meaningfully below the 29.1x Fair Ratio, this framework points to the stock being undervalued on an earnings multiple basis.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Nucor Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of a company’s story with a concrete financial forecast and a resulting fair value estimate.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you spell out how you think Nucor’s demand, margins, and policy backdrop will evolve, then automatically translate that story into projected revenue, earnings and profit margins and compare the resulting fair value to today’s price so you can assess whether it looks like a buy, a hold, or a sell.

Because Narratives on the platform are updated dynamically when new information such as earnings, buybacks, tariff headlines or project updates appears, they provide a living framework for decision making rather than a static snapshot.

For example, one Nucor Narrative might lean bullish, assuming sustained US infrastructure demand, supportive Section 232 tariffs and stronger long term margins that point to fair value closer to the most optimistic analyst target. A more cautious Narrative might emphasize macro risks, execution challenges at new mills and softer global pricing, and therefore anchor nearer the most conservative target. By comparing your chosen Narrative’s fair value to the current share price, you can act in a way that stays consistent with your own expectations.

Do you think there's more to the story for Nucor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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