MP Materials (MP) Is Down 5.7% After Announcing Rare Earth Joint Venture With US and Maaden

• On November 19, 2025, MP Materials Corp. announced a joint venture with the U.S. Department of War and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, aiming to diversify global rare earth supply chains and reinforce U.S. economic and national security interests.
• The agreement not only expands MP Materials' international footprint but also secures U.S. oversight, unlocking new opportunities to strengthen critical minerals supply through American technical expertise abroad.
• We'll explore how U.S. government-backed oversight in this new Saudi venture could influence MP Materials' long-term growth outlook and risk profile.

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MP Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in MP Materials, you need to believe in the company's ability to lead the North American rare earth supply chain through rapid expansion downstream, resilient government-backed revenue, and ongoing global supply chain reshaping. The new Saudi joint venture with the U.S. Department of War could reinforce MP's position as a critical player, but it does not fundamentally change the primary short-term catalyst: execution and ramp-up of new refining and manufacturing assets, with operational challenges remaining the main risk. Among recent announcements, MP's $500 million supply agreement with Apple stands out. This deal directly supports the revenue stability that underpins confidence in the company's ongoing investment in new refining and magnet manufacturing ventures, like the Saudi project, while also amplifying the company's exposure to concentration risk through large, strategic contracts. In contrast, investors also need to be mindful of how increasing reliance on a handful of major customers could impact...

Read the full narrative on MP Materials (it's free!)

MP Materials' narrative projects $1.0 billion in revenue and $236.3 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 61.3% yearly revenue growth and a $337.7 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$101.4 million.

Uncover how MP Materials' forecasts yield a $80.77 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-five private investors in the Simply Wall St Community estimate MP's fair value between US$3.71 and US$85 per share. While these views span a wide spectrum, concentrated revenue streams remain a crucial focus for all shareholders considering MP's future opportunities.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on MP Materials - why the stock might be worth as much as 54% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MP Materials Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your MP Materials research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MP Materials research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MP Materials' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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