Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Put simply, these types of businesses are compounding machines, meaning they are continually reinvesting their earnings at ever-higher rates of return. Speaking of which, we noticed some great changes in Mosaic's (NYSE:MOS) returns on capital, so let's have a look.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Mosaic:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.24 = US$4.2b ÷ (US$23b - US$5.2b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).
So, Mosaic has an ROCE of 24%. That's a fantastic return and not only that, it outpaces the average of 11% earned by companies in a similar industry.
View our latest analysis for Mosaic
In the above chart we have measured Mosaic's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Mosaic here for free.
SWOT Analysis for Mosaic
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Chemicals market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.
How Are Returns Trending?
Mosaic is showing promise given that its ROCE is trending up and to the right. The figures show that over the last five years, ROCE has grown 671% whilst employing roughly the same amount of capital. So it's likely that the business is now reaping the full benefits of its past investments, since the capital employed hasn't changed considerably. It's worth looking deeper into this though because while it's great that the business is more efficient, it might also mean that going forward the areas to invest internally for the organic growth are lacking.
On a side note, we noticed that the improvement in ROCE appears to be partly fueled by an increase in current liabilities. Essentially the business now has suppliers or short-term creditors funding about 23% of its operations, which isn't ideal. It's worth keeping an eye on this because as the percentage of current liabilities to total assets increases, some aspects of risk also increase.
The Key Takeaway
In summary, we're delighted to see that Mosaic has been able to increase efficiencies and earn higher rates of return on the same amount of capital. Since the stock has only returned 34% to shareholders over the last five years, the promising fundamentals may not be recognized yet by investors. So exploring more about this stock could uncover a good opportunity, if the valuation and other metrics stack up.
If you'd like to know more about Mosaic, we've spotted 2 warning signs, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
Mosaic is not the only stock earning high returns. If you'd like to see more, check out our free list of companies earning high returns on equity with solid fundamentals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:MOS
Mosaic
Through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet with moderate growth potential.