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Intrepid Potash NYSE:IPI Stock Report

Last Price


Market Cap







24 Sep, 2022


Company Financials +
IPI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance5/6
Financial Health6/6

IPI Stock Overview

Intrepid Potash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction and production of the potash in the United States and internationally.

Intrepid Potash Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Intrepid Potash
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$38.31
52 Week HighUS$121.72
52 Week LowUS$30.50
1 Month Change-31.07%
3 Month Change-19.53%
1 Year Change24.26%
3 Year Change19.72%
5 Year Change-12.13%
Change since IPO-92.40%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 31

Intrepid Potash: Strong Farmer Economics And Energy Needs To Power This Stock Beyond 2022

Summary Intrepid Potash's outperformance in 1H2022 to continue into 2H2022 and beyond according to latest investor presentation. Farmer economics and macro uncertainty supports continued high potash prices. IPI positioned to profit from underinvestment in energy and commodity markets in recent years. We have been covering Intrepid Potash (IPI) since it was priced at a split-adjusted $11 per share in October 2016. As a volatile, small cap name with a low ESG score, we believe the lack of institutional attention on the name creates a compelling opportunity for the rest of us. As value investors, we feel compelled due to its conservative net asset value, as well as strong cash flows. We are also writing this update to share a copy of its Investor Presentation, which the company just released after market on August 30, 2022, and a copy of which is included at the bottom of this article. Net Asset Value Currently, the company maintains $716 million of stockholders' equity compared to a market capitalization of $650 million. Not only is the market cap meaningfully below book value, we believe the accounting book value significantly understates the value of IPI's assets. Accounting rules conservatively require companies to write down assets, but are not as accurate when it comes to writing up asset values when the market changes. In the midst of the last potash downturn at the end of 2015, IPI conservatively decreased the value of its assets from $1.17 billion down to $640 million, a 45% write down. Potash price per ton in 2015 was around $300 per ton, compared with $730+ in today's market. SEC filings, FY 2015 10-K Not only is the company's assets understated relative to the current market value of its property, plant and equipment, but there are hidden assets constantly being unlocked as well. For example, the company is currently planning to start sell as much as 600k tons of sand per year. At a market price of approximately $40/ton, this new opportunity is compelling relative to its overall market cap and cash flows. Strong Cash Flows While this year has been an extraordinary year for potash and energy, we believe that IPI's normalized earnings and cash flow potential more than justifies its current price and leaves lots of room for upside. In 1H2022, the company generated $83mm in cash flows. We believe the company can generate close to the same amount in 2H2022, even as Potash prices stabilize over time. It is important to note that even with today's elevated Potash prices, given higher prices for many agricultural products the cost to farmers as a % of their operational costs are still in line with historic averages according to IPI's latest deck. IPI Investor Deck Summer 2022 Assuming nearly $160 million in cash flows this year, the company expects to spend only $35 million on "Sustaining Capital," leaving around $125 million for Growth Capital and excess capital to further strengthen the balance sheet or return to shareholders. IPI Investor Deck Summer 2022 Compared to its $650 million market cap as of writing this article, there is a lot of margin of safety and a lot of room for shareholders to profit as long as management continues to manage its balance sheet prudently. A copy of the company's latest Investor Deck for Summer 2022 is included here. What is Fair Value? Earlier this year, we sold our IPI stock in the run-up from $80 to $120, which may give a sense of our estimate of fair value. As the company's share price fell to $36, we bought back in and can't believe our luck in getting a good price twice. Even today with the significant increase in share price from 2016, and from our recent re-purchase of the stock, we believe there is compelling opportunity going forward.

Aug 04

Intrepid Potash Non-GAAP EPS of $1.82, revenue of $91.7M

Intrepid Potash press release (NYSE:IPI): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.82. Revenue of $91.7M (+35.0% Y/Y).  The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $41.5M in the second quarter, bringing first half 2022 adjusted EBITDA to $91.6M. Gross margin of $41.8M, a $27.6M improvement over the prior year. Cash flow from operations of $49.1M, a $16.8M improvement over the prior year. Incurred capital expenditures of $16.0M in the second quarter of 2022 and expect full year 2022 capital investment to be in the range of $65 million to $75 million.

Jul 17

Intrepid Potash: A Crash Without Cause

Despite the recent slowdown, global commodity prices have room to run much higher as the super cycle quickens. Intrepid Potash appears to be among a group of high-quality commodity producers that have fallen deeply into oversold territory over the past two months. Potash prices remain near cyclical highs and appear unlikely to decline as long as U.S. and E.U. Belarusian sanctions remain. Intrepid is a very volatile stock, but a price target range of $60 to $80 seems more reasonable given its expected cash flows and potash margins. Catching falling knives is notoriously tricky, but Intrepid is among the very few stocks I am firmly bullish on today. 2022 has been a tumultuous year for global agricultural markets. Most agricultural commodities have risen dramatically as global supplies have become more limited. Chief factors include the decline in eastern European exports and production and weather issues across much of the North American crop belt. That said, as with crude oil, agricultural raw materials prices remain well below their peak 2000s prices, particularly when adjusted for inflation. However, fertilizers and critical ingredients such as potash are much closer to all-time highs. See below: Data by YCharts Generally, agricultural commodities such as wheat and corn are led by input commodities such as fertilizers. As fertilizer becomes more expensive, farmers reduce use, leading to a decline in yields and, therefore, higher food prices. While the sharp rise in prices this year is notable, investors should keep in mind commodity prices were extremely low before 2020 and, on an inflation-adjusted basis, were far higher ten to twenty years ago. The 2010s saw a significant global glut of commodities, leading to substantial financial issues for nearly all commodity producers. This period led many commodity producers to dramatically reduce development spending, leading to a general decline or stagnation in output today. This pattern creates what is known as the "commodity super-cycle" - a consistent phenomenon of relatively consistent multidecade cyclical swings in commodity prices. Undoubtedly, COVID, the response to COVID, the war in Ukraine, and the reaction to the war are all factors that have accelerated this cycle. However, in my view, we are only seeing the beginning of that cycle, and over the next year or two, it seems likely we will see virtually all commodities reach new all-time-high prices, surpassing their 2000s peaks. Further, though many commodity producer stocks are high, even higher commodity prices should extend gains for years to come. More recently, we're seeing notable economic demand destruction that is likely temporarily reducing some commodity prices and stocks. However, as discussed recently regarding United States Steel (X) and Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR), I believe the recent sell-off is a great buying opportunity for long-term investors willing to ride a tumultuous few months. Unlike companies in most of the stock market, which I believe have far more downside risk, commodity producers have extremely low valuations (often at "P/E" ratios below 5X) and growing earnings. Besides the two I've already discussed, the potash producer Intrepid Potash (IPI) appears to be another solid fire-sale commodity producer. A Crash Without A Firm Cause Most commodities have undergone a significant correction lower over the past two months due to the growing potential for demand destruction. In my view, it is virtually guaranteed that overall economic demand will decline due in part to rising inflation (and falling real wages). However, the demand for many commodities such as oil and gas as well as fertilizers and potash can only fall so much. There is limited "slack" in these markets since, for better or worse, our current standard of living requires a relatively high degree of continuing commodity consumption. For example, U.S. natural soil mineral quality is generally poor, and there are few alternatives to inputs such as potash. Hence, a reduction in potash demand necessarily leads to decreased farm yields. A decline in farm yields will increase agricultural prices, leading to replenished cash flows for farmers, allowing them to use more fertilizers over the following season and ideally restoring crops. Fundamentally, unless people reduce food consumption (or food waste), demand for inputs like potash will likely remain nearly constant in the long run. Problematically, Russia and Belarus produce about 40% of the world's potash export. Russian fertilizer sales are exempt from sanctions, but exports are still under pressure due to banking and logistical sanctions. However, since January, before the Russian invasion, Belarus was placed under direct potash export sanctions by the U.S due to "disregard for international norms." Belarus controls a fifth of the global potash market, so these sanctions (not directly related to Russia) are likely the most significant cause of the current U.S potash shortage. Despite the harsh impact this factor has had on U.S farmers and consumers, it seems unlikely Biden will lift sanctions on Belarus soon due to the country's deepening ties with the Russian campaign. There is little reason to believe potash prices will return to normal. Unlike nitrogen, the potash market is not tied to the cost of natural gas. The sharp decline in natural gas prices is a primary cause for the recent decline in overall fertilizer prices. The top U.S potash producer, Intrepid Potash, has lost two-thirds of its peak value along with fertilizer producers. However, potash prices have remained high, so it remains like Intrepid's income will rise dramatically and maintain high levels. See its price and cash flow compared to potash below: Data by YCharts Potash prices have sustained the highest levels over the Q2 and Q3 period compared to the first quarter. Even the increased cash flows from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022 do not reflect the likely current cash flows given potash prices. Like others in its industry, the stock was overvalued two months ago due to a surge in "headline and trend-following" buying activity. However, given today's potash prices, the company will likely generate a quarterly operating cash flow of around $2.5-$3.5. Assuming production levels and costs remain flat, this equates to an annual CFO outlook of $10 to $14, giving it an extremely low forward price-to-cash flow valuation of ~3.4-3.8X. The current consensus EPS outlook for the company suggests an EPS of $8.7 this year, declining to $2.9 by 2024. In my view, this outlook seems slightly low given the fundamentals in the potash market. Firstly, if Belarusian sanctions remain, the potash shortage may grow dramatically in the short-run and lead to even higher prices. Again, while potash is expensive today, it is still not as expensive as it was in the 2000s, and unlike then, a considerable portion of exports are artificially constrained. Many companies may not be able to increase potash production quickly. Intrepid fell on the news that its larger Canadian competitor Nutrien (NTR), planned to ramp up potash production to offset declines in eastern Europe. While this news made for a viral headline, the company is not expected to boost production until 2025 and will need to increase mining and logistical capacities dramatically. In the current environment of prolonged supply chain troubles, it is notoriously tricky for physically demanding companies (such as mining) to increase output dramatically.

Shareholder Returns

IPIUS ChemicalsUS Market

Return vs Industry: IPI exceeded the US Chemicals industry which returned -14.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: IPI exceeded the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is IPI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
IPI volatility
IPI Average Weekly Movement9.1%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement6.3%
Market Average Movement6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: IPI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: IPI's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

2000440Bob Jornayvaz

Intrepid Potash, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the extraction and production of the potash in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The Potash segment offers muriate of potash or potassium chloride for use as a fertilizer input in the agricultural market; as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids for oil and gas wells, as well as an input to other industrial processes in the industrial market; and as a nutrient supplement in the animal feed market.

Intrepid Potash Fundamentals Summary

How do Intrepid Potash's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
IPI fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$506.80m
Earnings (TTM)US$283.01m
Revenue (TTM)US$283.01m


P/E Ratio


P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
IPI income statement (TTM)
Cost of RevenueUS$161.56m
Gross ProfitUS$121.44m
Other Expenses-US$161.57m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date


Earnings per share (EPS)21.39
Gross Margin42.91%
Net Profit Margin100.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did IPI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.


Is IPI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score


Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IPI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

IPI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.3x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does IPI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

IPI PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for IPI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
AVD American Vanguard
UAN CVR Partners
MOS Mosaic
IPI Intrepid Potash

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: IPI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.8x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does IPI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: IPI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.8x) compared to the US Chemicals industry average (14.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IPI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IPI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio1.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate IPI's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IPI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate IPI's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate IPI's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Intrepid Potash forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score


Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if IPI's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if IPI's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the US market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if IPI's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: IPI's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-11.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: IPI's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-11.2% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: IPI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Intrepid Potash performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score


Past Performance Score 5/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: IPI has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: IPI's current net profit margins are higher than last year (6.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: IPI has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 78.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: IPI's earnings growth over the past year (2457.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (78.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: IPI earnings growth over the past year (2457.7%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 21.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: IPI's Return on Equity (39.5%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Intrepid Potash's financial position?

Financial Health Score


Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: IPI's short term assets ($209.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($63.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: IPI's short term assets ($209.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($31.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: IPI is debt free.

Reducing Debt: IPI has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 16.2%.

Debt Coverage: IPI has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: IPI has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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What is Intrepid Potash current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score


Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate IPI's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate IPI's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if IPI's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if IPI's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as IPI has not reported any payouts.

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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?


Average management tenure


Bob Jornayvaz (64 yo)





Mr. Robert P. Jornayvaz, III, also known as Bob, has been Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Intrepid Acquisition Corp I since September 2021. He served as an Owner and Principal at Intre...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Bob's total compensation ($USD3.94M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.89M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Bob's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: IPI's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: IPI's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).


Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

NYSE:IPI Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
DateValueNameEntityRoleSharesMax Price
25 May 22SellUS$331,334Matthew PrestonIndividual5,118US$64.74
24 Mar 22SellUS$3,650,000Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany40,000US$92.50
18 Mar 22SellUS$822,740Robert BaldridgeIndividual12,679US$64.89
07 Mar 22SellUS$12,568,051Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany183,917US$68.38
03 Mar 22SellUS$4,289,856Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany69,272US$61.93
02 Mar 22SellUS$1,701,253Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany29,000US$59.12
01 Mar 22SellUS$658,571Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany11,728US$57.00
03 Feb 22SellUS$555,966Clearway Capital Management LtdCompany11,982US$46.46

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 71.05% of the company
OwnershipNameSharesCurrent ValueChange %Portfolio %
Intrepid Production Corporation
1,720,923$65.9m0%no data
Clearway Capital Management Ltd
1,336,083$51.2m0%no data
BlackRock, Inc.
1,103,007$42.3m25.03%no data
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
Capital Research and Management Company
634,276$24.3m56.03%no data
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
552,839$21.2m9.39%no data
Robert Jornayvaz
452,249$17.3m-3.62%no data
Acadian Asset Management LLC
State Street Global Advisors, Inc.
214,015$8.2m10.99%no data
Investment Management of Virginia, LLC
Millennium Management LLC
Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC
186,313$7.1m-28.69%no data
Two Sigma Advisers, LP
Geode Capital Management, LLC
179,441$6.9m5.01%no data
Castleknight Management LP
Morgan Stanley, Investment Banking and Brokerage Investments
167,042$6.4m88.89%no data
Two Sigma Investments, LP
Driehaus Capital Management LLC
139,567$5.3m20.07%no data
Susquehanna International Group, LLP, Asset Management Arm
ArrowMark Colorado Holdings, LLC
Assenagon Asset Management S.A.
Northern Trust Global Investments
102,562$3.9m21.24%no data
Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association-College Retirement Equities Fund
95,480$3.7m165.04%no data
Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC

Company Information

Intrepid Potash, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources

Key Information

  • Name: Intrepid Potash, Inc.
  • Ticker: IPI
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2000
  • Industry: Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals
  • Sector: Materials
  • Implied Market Cap: US$506.803m
  • Shares outstanding: 13.23m
  • Website:

Number of Employees


  • Intrepid Potash, Inc.
  • 1001 17th Street
  • Suite 1050
  • Denver
  • Colorado
  • 80202
  • United States


TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
58I1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURApr 2008
IPINYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDApr 2008

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/09/23 00:00
Annual Earnings2021/12/31

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.