Is Mosaic (MOS) Undervalued After Its Recent Pullback? A Fresh Look at the Fertilizer Producer’s Valuation

Mosaic (MOS) has been drifting without a headline catalyst lately, but the stock’s recent pullback and choppy performance over the past month and past 3 months are starting to catch value oriented investors’ attention.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic.

Zooming out, Mosaic’s longer slide is more telling. A 90 day share price return of minus 28.41 percent and a three year total shareholder return of minus 41.26 percent signal fading momentum, despite a modestly positive one year total shareholder return.

If Mosaic’s recent swings have you rethinking your exposure to cyclicals, it could be a good moment to scan for fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that might offer sturdier long term stories.

With earnings growth under pressure but analysts still seeing meaningful upside to the current share price, investors face a key question: is Mosaic quietly undervalued or are markets already pricing in any future recovery in demand and margins?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 28.9% Undervalued

With Mosaic last closing at $24.32 versus a narrative fair value of about $34 per share, the valuation debate hinges on how durable its earnings power really is.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $851.3 million (and earnings per share of $3.03) by about September 2028, down from $940.0 million today. However, there is a considerable amount of disagreement amongst the analysts with the most bullish expecting $1.2 billion in earnings, and the most bearish expecting $326 million.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know how a company with shrinking earnings still commands a higher future profit multiple in this narrative? The answer blends modest growth, compressed margins and a valuation reset that looks more like a quality compounder than a cyclical fertilizer producer. Curious which assumptions really carry that fair value estimate? Dive in to see the precise growth and margin profile driving this call.

Result: Fair Value of $34.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, softer phosphate pricing and persistent Brazilian credit stress could easily delay any demand recovery, challenging the idea that deferred volumes reliably support upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Mosaic narrative.

Build Your Own Mosaic Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mosaic research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for your next investing edge?

Before you move on, put your research momentum to work by hunting for fresh opportunities in minutes with powerful screeners built for serious long term investors.

• Capture overlooked value opportunities by scanning these 901 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that still trade at compelling discounts to their cash flow potential.
• Ride the most exciting innovation wave by targeting these 24 AI penny stocks positioned at the heart of artificial intelligence growth.
• Lock in potential income streams by focusing on these 10 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can strengthen your portfolio's cash generation.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com