Greif (GEF): Assessing Valuation After a Quiet 14% One-Month Share Price Climb

Greif (GEF) has quietly kept shareholders happy, with the stock climbing about 14 % over the past month and 16 % in the past 3 months, even without a splashy headline catalyst.

See our latest analysis for Greif.

At around $69.43 per share, Greif’s recent double digit 30 day share price return builds on steady year to date gains, while its five year total shareholder return of 74.36% shows momentum has been quietly compounding over time.

If Greif’s steady climb has you rethinking where the next quiet outperformer might come from, now could be a smart time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With earnings growing faster than revenue and the share price edging just below analyst targets, investors now face a key question: is Greif still trading at a discount, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.4% Undervalued

With Greif closing at $69.43 against a narrative fair value of $72.60, the story leans toward modest upside and disciplined, margin focused execution.

The strategic divestment of Greif's lower margin containerboard and timberland businesses is sharpening its focus on markets poised for structural growth such as polymers and high value industrial sectors, enabling improved capital efficiency and margin expansion. This, in turn, is positioned to support stronger long term net margins and free cash flow. Greif's cost optimization program, including SG and A reduction, operational efficiency improvements, and network rationalization, has already driven improved gross and EBITDA margins. As volume recovers, the operating leverage from these actions is expected to support further earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how shrinking revenue can still support rising profits and a richer future multiple, all while using a relatively conservative discount rate and steady share count assumptions? Read on to see which earnings and margin shifts power this valuation play.

Result: Fair Value of $72.6 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering volume weakness and execution risk in higher growth polymer and regulated end markets could quickly challenge the current undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Greif narrative.

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to challenge the assumptions with your own research, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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