Ero Copper Corp.

NYSE:ERO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Ero Copper Valuation

Is ERO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ERO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$103.70
Fair Value
87.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ERO ($13.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($103.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ERO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ERO?

Key metric: As ERO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ERO. This is calculated by dividing ERO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ERO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio81.3x
EarningsUS$17.02m
Market CapUS$1.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ERO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ERO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.3x
FCX Freeport-McMoRan
27.3x12.1%US$51.5b
WS Worthington Steel
10.3x8.0%US$1.5b
CSTM Constellium
14.2x51.3%US$1.5b
CENX Century Aluminum
5.5x-8.3%US$1.7b
ERO Ero Copper
81.3x210.6%US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ERO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (81.3x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ERO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$5.24m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
No. of Companies9PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ERO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (81.3x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ERO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ERO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio81.3x
Fair PE Ratio690.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ERO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (81.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (690.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ERO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$13.40
US$21.18
+58.1%
11.4%US$26.39US$18.06n/a11
Jan ’26US$13.48
US$22.68
+68.3%
9.3%US$26.83US$19.06n/a12
Dec ’25US$15.22
US$23.28
+53.0%
8.1%US$27.01US$19.19n/a12
Nov ’25US$18.46
US$25.32
+37.2%
8.8%US$28.97US$21.73n/a12
Oct ’25US$22.50
US$26.04
+15.7%
9.0%US$29.61US$22.21n/a12
Sep ’25US$20.55
US$25.72
+25.1%
9.4%US$29.39US$22.04n/a11
Aug ’25US$18.70
US$26.22
+40.2%
10.8%US$31.21US$22.50n/a12
Jul ’25US$21.30
US$25.18
+18.2%
11.5%US$29.93US$21.17n/a12
Jun ’25US$21.30
US$24.73
+16.1%
9.8%US$29.24US$21.93n/a12
May ’25US$20.44
US$22.64
+10.8%
4.8%US$24.89US$20.86n/a11
Apr ’25US$19.28
US$19.23
-0.3%
8.4%US$23.58US$17.32n/a11
Mar ’25US$17.74
US$18.44
+3.9%
9.6%US$23.60US$16.96n/a11
Feb ’25US$16.39
US$18.43
+12.5%
9.3%US$22.41US$16.43US$13.4011
Jan ’25US$15.79
US$18.34
+16.2%
10.3%US$22.38US$16.41US$13.4811
Dec ’24US$13.65
US$17.63
+29.1%
11.5%US$22.03US$16.16US$15.2211
Nov ’24US$13.28
US$20.02
+50.7%
8.0%US$22.78US$18.08US$18.4611
Oct ’24US$17.24
US$21.38
+24.0%
7.5%US$24.30US$18.41US$22.5011
Sep ’24US$20.35
US$21.24
+4.4%
8.2%US$24.42US$18.50US$20.5512
Aug ’24US$23.48
US$21.59
-8.0%
8.1%US$23.83US$18.92US$18.7012
Jul ’24US$20.23
US$21.33
+5.4%
8.7%US$24.16US$18.12US$21.3012
Jun ’24US$17.02
US$20.88
+22.7%
7.8%US$23.51US$18.37US$21.3012
May ’24US$20.07
US$20.37
+1.5%
10.0%US$23.62US$17.35US$20.4411
Apr ’24US$17.64
US$18.94
+7.4%
10.6%US$22.18US$14.79US$19.2811
Mar ’24US$16.58
US$17.45
+5.2%
10.0%US$20.24US$15.00US$17.7411
Feb ’24US$16.77
US$16.94
+1.0%
12.5%US$20.17US$12.70US$16.3911
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
US$21.00
Fair Value
36.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/03 06:09
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ero Copper Corp. is covered by 24 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew MurphyBarclays
David GaglianoBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Guilherme RositoBofA Global Research