Ero Copper Corp.

NYSE:ERO Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Ero Copper Valuation

Is ERO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ERO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$82.53
Fair Value
84.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ERO ($13.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($82.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ERO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ERO?

Key metric: As ERO is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ERO. This is calculated by dividing ERO's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ERO's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio71.8x
EarningsUS$18.89m
Market CapUS$1.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ERO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ERO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average57.5x
FCX Freeport-McMoRan
31x17.27%US$55.3b
MTRN Materion
162.7x78.62%US$1.6b
CSTM Constellium
23.4x48.03%US$1.7b
WS Worthington Steel
12.8x16.24%US$1.4b
ERO Ero Copper
71.8x37.05%US$2.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ERO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.8x) compared to the peer average (57.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ERO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$5.43m
LBSR Liberty Star Uranium & Metals
2.4xn/aUS$5.06m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ERO 71.8xIndustry Avg. 20.5xNo. of Companies8PE01224364860+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ERO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.8x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ERO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ERO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio71.8x
Fair PE Ratio28.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ERO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (71.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ERO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$13.09
US$17.70
+35.18%
16.07%US$24.33US$12.88n/a13
May ’26US$12.55
US$17.65
+40.61%
17.33%US$24.61US$13.03n/a13
Apr ’26US$12.31
US$17.94
+45.75%
12.34%US$23.55US$15.24n/a11
Mar ’26US$11.82
US$18.98
+60.57%
17.71%US$27.41US$16.17n/a11
Feb ’26US$13.40
US$21.18
+58.09%
11.38%US$26.39US$18.06n/a11
Jan ’26US$13.48
US$22.68
+68.27%
9.30%US$26.83US$19.06n/a12
Dec ’25US$15.22
US$23.28
+52.97%
8.11%US$27.01US$19.19n/a12
Nov ’25US$18.46
US$25.32
+37.15%
8.81%US$28.97US$21.73n/a12
Oct ’25US$22.50
US$26.04
+15.72%
8.96%US$29.61US$22.21n/a12
Sep ’25US$20.55
US$25.72
+25.14%
9.42%US$29.39US$22.04n/a11
Aug ’25US$18.70
US$26.22
+40.20%
10.75%US$31.21US$22.50n/a12
Jul ’25US$21.30
US$25.18
+18.22%
11.49%US$29.93US$21.17n/a12
Jun ’25US$21.30
US$24.73
+16.10%
9.81%US$29.24US$21.93n/a12
May ’25US$20.44
US$22.64
+10.76%
4.78%US$24.89US$20.86US$12.5511
Apr ’25US$19.28
US$19.23
-0.28%
8.45%US$23.58US$17.32US$12.3111
Mar ’25US$17.74
US$18.44
+3.94%
9.61%US$23.60US$16.96US$11.8211
Feb ’25US$16.39
US$18.43
+12.47%
9.27%US$22.41US$16.43US$13.4011
Jan ’25US$15.79
US$18.34
+16.18%
10.25%US$22.38US$16.41US$13.4811
Dec ’24US$13.65
US$17.63
+29.13%
11.55%US$22.03US$16.16US$15.2211
Nov ’24US$13.28
US$20.02
+50.72%
8.01%US$22.78US$18.08US$18.4611
Oct ’24US$17.24
US$21.38
+24.04%
7.50%US$24.30US$18.41US$22.5011
Sep ’24US$20.35
US$21.24
+4.39%
8.24%US$24.42US$18.50US$20.5512
Aug ’24US$23.48
US$21.59
-8.03%
8.11%US$23.83US$18.92US$18.7012
Jul ’24US$20.23
US$21.33
+5.41%
8.72%US$24.16US$18.12US$21.3012
Jun ’24US$17.02
US$20.88
+22.65%
7.83%US$23.51US$18.37US$21.3012
May ’24US$20.07
US$20.37
+1.48%
9.95%US$23.62US$17.35US$20.4411
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
US$17.68
Fair Value
26.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/16 04:06
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/16 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Ero Copper Corp. is covered by 26 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Matthew MurphyBarclays
Alexander Robert PearceBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Matthew MurphyBMO Capital Markets Equity Research