Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Eastman Chemical's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Eastman Chemical had US$5.21b of debt at March 2024, down from US$5.75b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$509.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$4.70b.
How Healthy Is Eastman Chemical's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Eastman Chemical had liabilities of US$2.62b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.52b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$509.0m in cash and US$1.27b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$7.36b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$11.8b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Eastman Chemical's debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.0 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Unfortunately, Eastman Chemical's EBIT flopped 14% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Eastman Chemical can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Eastman Chemical recorded free cash flow of 39% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say Eastman Chemical's EBIT growth rate was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT isn't such a worry. Once we consider all the factors above, together, it seems to us that Eastman Chemical's debt is making it a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Eastman Chemical that you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:EMN
Eastman Chemical
Operates as a specialty materials company in the United States, China, and internationally.
Very undervalued established dividend payer.