Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Constellium SE (NYSE:CSTM) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Constellium
How Much Debt Does Constellium Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Constellium had debt of €1.99b at the end of September 2022, a reduction from €2.10b over a year. However, it also had €171.0m in cash, and so its net debt is €1.82b.
How Strong Is Constellium's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Constellium had liabilities of €1.98b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €2.64b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €171.0m as well as receivables valued at €822.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €3.62b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €1.78b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Constellium would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Constellium has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.2 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.8 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Even worse, Constellium saw its EBIT tank 40% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Constellium can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Constellium recorded free cash flow of 44% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
On the face of it, Constellium's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is not so bad. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Constellium has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Constellium (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:CSTM
Constellium
Engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of rolled and extruded aluminum products for the packaging, aerospace, automotive, defense, and other transportation and industry end-markets.
Undervalued with high growth potential.