Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 29%

The Clearwater Paper Corporation (NYSE:CLW) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 29%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 58%.

Even after such a large jump in price, Clearwater Paper's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.5x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for Clearwater Paper as its earnings have been rising very briskly. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings growth might actually underperform the broader market in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Clearwater Paper

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Clearwater Paper, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Clearwater Paper's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 92% gain to the company's bottom line. EPS has also lifted 27% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 13% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we can see why Clearwater Paper is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on to something they believe will continue to trail the bourse.

The Key Takeaway

Clearwater Paper's recent share price jump still sees its P/E sitting firmly flat on the ground. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

As we suspected, our examination of Clearwater Paper revealed its three-year earnings trends are contributing to its low P/E, given they look worse than current market expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Clearwater Paper that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Clearwater Paper, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.