CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Just Recorded A 23% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 8.3% to hit US$1.7b. CF Industries Holdings also reported a statutory profit of US$1.85, which was an impressive 23% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on CF Industries Holdings after the latest results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about CF Industries Holdings. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CF Industries Holdings' 19 analysts is for revenues of US$6.42b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 16% to US$6.76 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$6.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.22 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$87.57, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic CF Industries Holdings analyst has a price target of US$115 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$75.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of CF Industries Holdings'historical trends, as the 6.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 7.8% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that CF Industries Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around CF Industries Holdings' earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for CF Industries Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that CF Industries Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.