Stock Analysis

Despite the downward trend in earnings at Axalta Coating Systems (NYSE:AXTA) the stock rallies 3.6%, bringing one-year gains to 46%

NYSE:AXTA
Source: Shutterstock

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. To wit, the Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (NYSE:AXTA) share price is 46% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 14% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! It is also impressive that the stock is up 45% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.

After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for Axalta Coating Systems

SWOT Analysis for Axalta Coating Systems

Strength
  • No major strengths identified for AXTA.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, Axalta Coating Systems actually saw its earnings per share drop 25%.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

However the year on year revenue growth of 10% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AXTA Earnings and Revenue Growth July 4th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. You can see what analysts are predicting for Axalta Coating Systems in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Axalta Coating Systems has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 46% in the last twelve months. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 1.6% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Axalta Coating Systems (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

Axalta Coating Systems is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.