Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) Full-Year Report

The investors in Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 51% to US$17.17 in the week following its yearly results. Revenues of US$239m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.66, some 14% smaller than was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Aspen Aerogels after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aspen Aerogels from eight analysts is for revenues of US$361.8m in 2024. If met, it would imply a huge 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 69% to US$0.18. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$354.8m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$20.00, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Aspen Aerogels, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Aspen Aerogels shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Aspen Aerogels' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Aspen Aerogels to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aspen Aerogels. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Aspen Aerogels analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Aspen Aerogels is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.