Aspen Aerogels Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Aspen Aerogels is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 121.6% and 10.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 121.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -6.4% in 3 years.
Key information
121.6%
Earnings growth rate
121.82%
EPS growth rate
| Chemicals earnings growth | 18.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | 10.1% |
| Future return on equity | -6.40% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 27 Feb 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 30
ASPN: GM Demand Reset And Facility Disruption Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have cut Aspen Aerogels' price targets into a lower $3 to $6 range, citing Q4 and Q1 misses, GM related EV demand weakness, and a tough near term outlook, partially balanced by cost actions, a growing net cash position, and what they see as longer term platform value. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research highlights that several bearish analysts have reset expectations lower for Aspen Aerogels, trimming price targets into a $3 to $6 range after the Q4 earnings miss and a soft Q1 outlook.Narrative Update • Apr 15
ASPN: GM Demand Reset And Tough Outlook Will Pressure Shares
Analysts have cut their average price targets on Aspen Aerogels to a range of about $3 to $6. This reflects weaker near term expectations tied to GM related EV softness, offset by company efforts to protect cash, reduce costs, and focus on longer term platform value.
Narrative Update • Apr 01
ASPN: Cost Discipline And GM Settlement Cash Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have reduced their average price targets on Aspen Aerogels to a range of about $3 to $6, citing Q4 earnings and guidance shortfalls, ongoing softness tied to GM and the broader EV reset, as well as a sharper company focus on cash preservation and cost controls. Analyst Commentary Across recent research notes, analysts broadly cut price targets on Aspen Aerogels following Q4 results and softer guidance, but the tone is mixed rather than uniformly negative.Narrative Update • Mar 18
ASPN: Cost Actions And Cash Support Will Drive Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts have reduced the fair value estimate for Aspen Aerogels from $10 to $6, reflecting lower price targets across the Street as they weigh weaker GM related EV demand against the company's cost actions, cash support from the GM settlement, and longer term platform potential. Analyst Commentary Street research has shifted sharply lower on headline price targets, but the tone is not uniformly negative.Narrative Update • Mar 04
ASPN: Tough Year And GM Demand Reset Will Pressure Shares
Narrative Update: Aspen Aerogels The analyst price target for Aspen Aerogels has moved from $6.00 to $3.00 as analysts factor in a tough year following a Q4 earnings miss and softer guidance, partly offset by cost actions and a stronger net cash position tied to the GM settlement. Analyst Commentary Bearish analysts have reset expectations for Aspen Aerogels, cutting price targets across the board after the Q4 earnings miss and softer near term guidance.Seeking Alpha • Feb 27
Aspen Aerogels: A Long Road Ahead
Summary Aspen Aerogels has experienced a dramatic boom-bust cycle, with shares plunging amid a dismal industry outlook and oversupply in EV insulation. After rapid revenue growth and a $2 billion expansion plan, Aspen halted new plant construction and saw revenues collapse from $453 million to a $300 million run rate. Guidance now points to Q4 sales of just $45 million and EBITDA losses of $10 million, highlighting severe operational and demand challenges. Despite a new European OEM contract and cost-cutting targets, Aspen faces long-term demand threats from solid-state battery developments and persistent market headwinds. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Feb 18
ASPN: Updated Profitability Assumptions Will Still Support Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target for Aspen Aerogels to $10.00, citing updated inputs around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions as the key drivers of this change. Valuation Changes Fair Value: revised slightly from $9.98 to $10.00 per share, aligning with the updated price target.
Narrative Update • Feb 04
ASPN: Higher 2025 Loss Guidance Will Still Support Long-Term Opportunity
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Aspen Aerogels, highlighting a slightly higher discount rate and future P/E assumptions, along with modest tweaks to revenue growth and profit margin expectations, as they reassess the risk and earnings profile embedded in their valuation models. What's in the News Aspen Aerogels revised full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $270 million to $280 million, compared with prior guidance of $297 million to $317 million (company guidance).Analysis Article • Jan 23
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) 32% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Those holding Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 32% in the...Narrative Update • Jan 20
ASPN: Lower 2025 Guidance Will Still Support Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their price targets on Aspen Aerogels, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E that together suggest a modest improvement in their overall outlook for the shares. What's in the News Aspen Aerogels revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of US$270 million to US$280 million, compared with prior guidance of US$297 million to US$317 million (company guidance).Narrative Update • Jan 06
ASPN: Lower 2025 Outlook Will Still Support Attractive Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts have lifted their price target on Aspen Aerogels to reflect updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E. The new target implies a valuation aligned with these revised inputs compared with the prior figure.Narrative Update • Dec 19
ASPN: Reduced Guidance And Higher Discount Rate Will Present Long-Term Upside Opportunity
Aspen Aerogels' consensus analyst price target has been reduced by approximately $4.02 per share, as analysts temper their assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, while also applying a slightly higher discount rate and multiple to future earnings. What's in the News Aspen Aerogels lowered its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $270 million to $280 million, down from prior expectations of $297 million to $317 million (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 05
ASPN: Improving Risk Profile Will Support Long-Term Opportunity Despite Wider Losses
Analysts have raised their price target on Aspen Aerogels by a modest amount, now embedding slightly lower discount rates and marginally softer future valuation multiples, as they emphasize the company’s improving risk profile and steady long term growth outlook. What's in the News Aspen Aerogels lowered its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $270 million to $280 million, down from the prior outlook of $297 million to $317 million (company guidance).Analysis Article • Dec 04
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Might Have The Makings Of A Multi-Bagger
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Narrative Update • Nov 21
ASPN: Lower Profit Margins Will Drive Opportunity As Net Losses Peak
Analysts have lowered their price target for Aspen Aerogels from $8.75 to $6.83 per share. They cite revised expectations for slower revenue growth and profit margins.Narrative Update • Nov 07
ASPN: Reduced EV Tax Credits Will Challenge Thermal Segment Performance Ahead
Analysts have lowered their price target for Aspen Aerogels from $9.58 to $8.75. They cited reduced electric vehicle production forecasts and increased macroeconomic pressures on the company’s key Thermal Barrier business segment.Analysis Article • Oct 11
Optimistic Investors Push Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Shares Up 27% But Growth Is Lacking
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period...Analysis Article • Aug 09
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
NYSE:ASPN 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Aspen Aerogels's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Narrative Update • Aug 08
Cost Optimization And Industrial Demand Will Shape Future Markets
The consensus price target for Aspen Aerogels has increased, reflecting a higher valuation multiple (future P/E rising from 14.46x to 20.08x) despite a notable decline in net profit margin (from 14.47% to 11.75%), resulting in a new fair value estimate of $9.75. What's in the News Ricardo Rodriguez will step down as CFO at the end of Q3 and be succeeded by Grant Thoele, who currently serves as Chief of Staff and VP of Corporate Strategy and Finance.Analysis Article • Aug 06
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) Shares Climb 28% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up
NYSE:ASPN 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Aspen Aerogels's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Analysis Article • Jul 09
Is Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) A Risky Investment?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...Analysis Article • Jun 11
Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) 29% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Those holding Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 29% in the...Analysis Article • Apr 17
Not Many Are Piling Into Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Stock Yet As It Plummets 30%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares are down a considerable 30% in the...Analysis Article • Apr 01
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's...Seeking Alpha • Mar 31
Aspen Aerogels: Tariffs, Tesla And The Silver Lining
Summary Aspen Aerogels' growth is tied to the EV market, which faces uncertainty due to the potential elimination of the EV tax credit. Despite fears, Aspen Aerogels may benefit from Tesla's declining market share, as smaller EV players gain traction, particularly in Europe and China. US EV sales are expected to plateau until 2027, potentially limiting Aspen's revenue growth. But international markets offer expansion opportunities. The market may be overreacting to Aspen's stock decline. The company's prospects remain strong with increasing production capabilities in non-US markets. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 28
Positive Sentiment Still Eludes Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Following 34% Share Price Slump
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares are down a considerable 34% in the...Seeking Alpha • Feb 14
Aspen Aerogels: Insulation Play Leaves Investors In The Cold
Summary Aspen Aerogels has seen significant revenue growth from EV insulation but faces challenges with EV demand, tariffs, and potential oversupply. Despite impressive revenue increases, shares have fallen due to concerns over market demand and halted construction of a new plant. The company reported strong 2024 sales and profits but faces a slowdown in EV revenue growth, with 2025 becoming a much tougher year. Given the uncertain outlook and recent setbacks, I remain cautious about ASPN stock but see the potential appeal if incremental improvements materialize throughout 2024. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 14
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Firstly...Seeking Alpha • Dec 23
Aspen Aerogels: There Are Reasons To Be Careful But It's So Cheap
Summary The company has recently taken on significant debt to finance its Statesboro plant. Stock were issued to improve the balance. The market didn't like but could make sense if it's compensated with growth thanks to the new Statesboro Plant. Q3 2024 earnings showed 92.93% YoY revenue growth and improved margins, but flat quarter-over-quarter sales led to a 28% stock decline. It's currently trading at 12 times forward EV/EBITDA and only 2.5 EV/Sales despite its revenue growth of almost 90%, so I think it's cheap. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 02
Aspen Aerogels: Thermal Barriers Could Sustain Further Growth Despite A Chilly Market
Summary I find Aspen's 93% YoY revenue growth in Q3 2024 quite impressive, driven entirely by organic demand for PyroThin thermal barriers, with revenue guidance raised significantly this year. Gross margins climbed to 42% in the past quarter, while adj. EBITDA is projected to reach $90M in FY2024. Management's debt refinancing decision reduces dilution risks in the long term, a move I highly favor, despite the recent public offering. I foresee strong long-term growth from the Statesboro facility, set to generate $1.2–$1.6B annually, once completed in 2026. While potential changes to EV tax credits in the US and customer concentration pose risks, I believe Aspen's strong fundamentals and long-term growth drivers justify my cautious buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 17
Aspen Aerogels: Despite Recent Pressure, This Is Intriguing
Summary Aspen Aerogels has transformed from an industrial insulation supplier to a key EV sector player, showing significant revenue growth and operating leverage. Despite impressive results and DOE funding news, shares fell due to a low-priced equity issue, concerns over EV demand, and uncertainty about a new factory. Shares dropped nearly 50% in a month, with third quarter sales up 93% YoY, driven by thermal barrier revenues, while facing capacity constraints. The company's valuation appears modest, with potential upside from the new factory and DOE loan, despite political and inflationary risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 07
With A 32% Price Drop For Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) You'll Still Get What You Pay For
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares have had a horrible month, losing 32% after a relatively good period...Seeking Alpha • Oct 28
Aspen Aerogels: Interesting Times
Summary Aspen Aerogels has transformed from an insulation supplier to a key player in the EV sector, showing strong revenue growth and operating leverage. Despite impressive quarterly results and preliminary DOE funding for a new plant, concerns about EV demand remain. The company raised $85 million through a share issuance, despite holding over $100 million in cash, raising questions about future funding needs. At around $20 per share, I see potential in Aspen Aerogels, despite recent share dilution and lack of sequential growth in Q3. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Oct 17
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE:ASPN) Is Looking To Continue Growing Its Returns On Capital
Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? Typically, we'll want...Seeking Alpha • Sep 26
Aspen Aerogels: Current Valuation Is Not A Good Risk/Reward
Summary Aspen Aerogels' growth is constrained by its heavy reliance on General Motors, which may switch to superior battery technology, impacting ASPN's sales. The company's valuation appears overly optimistic, not adequately accounting for risks like EV market slowdown and uncertain DOE loan approval. Aspen Aerogels' Thermal Barrier division, crucial for growth, faces challenges that could slow down the company's overall progress and affect share prices. Current stock valuation at 3.7x book value lacks a sufficient margin of safety; a more attractive entry point would be at 2.5x P/B or $16.8 per share. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 18
Aspen Aerogels: Management Guidance Remains Very Conservative
Summary Aspen Aerogel's unique aerogels offer unmatched thermal insulation, driving growth in legacy energy markets and the booming electric vehicle sector. The company's thermal barrier segment saw explosive growth, with a 98% increase year-over-year in 2023, leveraging its technology for EV battery protection. Aspen's gross margins expanded significantly by outsourcing energy industrial manufacturing, focusing on the high-demand thermal barrier business without needing new plant investments. Current management guidance is very conservative, but analyst expectations are based on this. Here's a Q3 beat opportunity and price reaction. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Sep 11
Decisive Expansion And EV Innovations Propel Aerogel Giant Towards Financial Triumph
Expansion of production capacity and strategic financial management shows promise for significant revenue growth and improved net income through cost efficiency.Analysis Article • Aug 24
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) 32% Share Price Surge
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period...Analysis Article • Aug 15
Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Aspen Aerogels' (NYSE:ASPN) Earnings
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. ( NYSE:ASPN ) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a...Seeking Alpha • Aug 12
Aspen Aerogels: Impressive, But Some Questions As Well
Summary Aspen Aerogels, Inc. has successfully transformed itself into a key supplier to the electric vehicle sector, with impressive sales growth and now earnings to show for. Momentum remains strong for the company, with significant capital spending questions arising as it aims to fulfill increasing demand. Despite concerns about the pace of the EV transition and delays in expansion plans, Aspen Aerogels shows strong operating performance and potential for growth. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 454 | N/A | 107 | N/A | 1 |
| 12/31/2027 | 275 | -13 | 27 | 19 | 5 |
| 12/31/2026 | 185 | -63 | -8 | -3 | 5 |
| 12/31/2025 | 271 | -390 | -5 | 33 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 353 | -305 | 3 | 52 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 397 | -312 | -3 | 58 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 437 | -286 | -4 | 69 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 453 | 13 | -41 | 46 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 414 | 1 | -92 | 7 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 357 | 1 | -132 | -21 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 288 | -31 | -188 | -36 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 239 | -46 | -218 | -43 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 214 | -55 | -270 | -64 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 190 | -71 | -335 | -94 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 188 | -80 | -309 | -96 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 180 | -83 | -272 | -94 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 152 | -89 | -209 | -82 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 146 | -68 | -113 | -51 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 132 | -50 | -66 | -40 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 122 | -37 | -32 | -19 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 113 | -27 | -19 | -12 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 107 | -26 | -13 | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 100 | -25 | -14 | -10 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 100 | -22 | -13 | -10 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 124 | -17 | -3 | 0 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 135 | -12 | -5 | -2 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 140 | -12 | -2 | 1 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 139 | -15 | -3 | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 129 | -28 | N/A | -6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 117 | -32 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 109 | -34 | N/A | -9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 104 | -34 | N/A | -9 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 105 | -22 | N/A | -8 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 108 | -19 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 112 | -17 | N/A | -3 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 112 | -19 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 103 | -23 | N/A | -4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 105 | -23 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 108 | -19 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 118 | -12 | N/A | -1 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 127 | -5 | N/A | 4 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 129 | -4 | N/A | 1 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 132 | -5 | N/A | 9 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 123 | -6 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 113 | -11 | N/A | 5 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 107 | -11 | N/A | 6 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ASPN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: ASPN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: ASPN is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ASPN's revenue (10.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.3% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ASPN's revenue (10.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ASPN is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 17:05 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Benjamin Kallo | Baird |
| J. David Anderson | Barclays |
| J. David Anderson | Barclays |