Investors Shouldn't Be Too Comfortable With Aspen Aerogels' (NYSE:ASPN) Earnings

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) just reported some strong earnings, and the market reacted accordingly with a healthy uplift in the share price. However, our analysis suggests that shareholders may be missing some factors that indicate the earnings result was not as good as it looked.

See our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels

Zooming In On Aspen Aerogels' Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to June 2024, Aspen Aerogels recorded an accrual ratio of 0.28. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, raising questions about how useful that profit figure really is. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of US$132m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of US$1.39m. Coming off the back of negative free cash flow last year, we imagine some shareholders might wonder if its cash burn of US$132m, this year, indicates high risk. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. Aspen Aerogels expanded the number of shares on issue by 9.8% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. You can see a chart of Aspen Aerogels' EPS by clicking here.

How Is Dilution Impacting Aspen Aerogels' Earnings Per Share (EPS)?

Aspen Aerogels was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. But mathematics aside, it is always good to see when a formerly unprofitable business come good (though we accept profit would have been higher if dilution had not been required). Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.

In the long term, if Aspen Aerogels' earnings per share can increase, then the share price should too. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For that reason, you could say that EPS is more important that net income in the long run, assuming the goal is to assess whether a company's share price might grow.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Aspen Aerogels' profit suffered from unusual items, which reduced profit by US$4.6m in the last twelve months. If this was a non-cash charge, it would have made the accrual ratio better, if cashflow had stayed strong, so it's not great to see in combination with an uninspiring accrual ratio. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Aspen Aerogels to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Aspen Aerogels' Profit Performance

In conclusion, Aspen Aerogels' accrual ratio suggests that its statutory earnings are not backed by cash flow; but the fact unusual items actually weighed on profit may create upside if those unusual items to not recur. On top of that, the dilution means that shareholders now own less of the company. Based on these factors, we think that Aspen Aerogels' statutory profits probably make it seem better than it is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Aspen Aerogels (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.

Our examination of Aspen Aerogels has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.