The Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE:AMBP) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$8.71 in the past week. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$4.1b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ardagh Metal Packaging

Following the latest results, Ardagh Metal Packaging's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.85b in 2022. This would be a meaningful 20% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Ardagh Metal Packaging forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.41 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.50 in 2022. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Ardagh Metal Packaging after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a real cut to per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$11.80, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Ardagh Metal Packaging analyst has a price target of US$13.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ardagh Metal Packaging is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Ardagh Metal Packaging's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 20% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.1% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ardagh Metal Packaging to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ardagh Metal Packaging. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ardagh Metal Packaging analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Ardagh Metal Packaging's balance sheet, and whether we think Ardagh Metal Packaging is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.