Stock Analysis

Investors in Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM) have seen solid returns of 105% over the past year

NYSE:AEM
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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. On the other hand, if you find a high quality business to buy (at the right price) you can more than double your money! For example, the Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) share price has soared 101% return in just a single year. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 25% gain in the last three months. It is also impressive that the stock is up 75% over three years, adding to the sense that it is a real winner.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 1 year and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Agnico Eagle Mines

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, Agnico Eagle Mines actually saw its earnings per share drop 4.5%.

Sometimes companies will sacrifice EPS in the short term for longer term gains; and in that case we may be able to find other positives. It makes sense to check some of the other fundamental data for an explanation of the share price rise.

We doubt the modest 1.7% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. However the year on year revenue growth of 25% would help. We do see some companies suppress earnings in order to accelerate revenue growth.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AEM Earnings and Revenue Growth February 15th 2025

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Agnico Eagle Mines the TSR over the last 1 year was 105%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Agnico Eagle Mines shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 105% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 16% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Agnico Eagle Mines (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.