Declining Stock and Decent Financials: Is The Market Wrong About Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM)?

Published
July 20, 2022
NYSE:AEM
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With its stock down 34% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:AEM). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study Agnico Eagle Mines' ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

View our latest analysis for Agnico Eagle Mines

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) รท Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Agnico Eagle Mines is:

3.1% = US$508m รท US$16b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Agnico Eagle Mines' Earnings Growth And 3.1% ROE

As you can see, Agnico Eagle Mines' ROE looks pretty weak. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 21%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Despite this, surprisingly, Agnico Eagle Mines saw an exceptional 31% net income growth over the past five years. Therefore, there could be other reasons behind this growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared Agnico Eagle Mines' net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 24% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NYSE:AEM Past Earnings Growth July 20th 2022

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Agnico Eagle Mines is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Agnico Eagle Mines Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

The three-year median payout ratio for Agnico Eagle Mines is 36%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 64%. By the looks of it, the dividend is well covered and Agnico Eagle Mines is reinvesting its profits efficiently as evidenced by its exceptional growth which we discussed above.

Moreover, Agnico Eagle Mines is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 72% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Agnico Eagle Mines' future ROE will rise to 7.1% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Agnico Eagle Mines has some positive attributes. Despite its low rate of return, the fact that the company reinvests a very high portion of its profits into its business, no doubt contributed to its high earnings growth. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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