Millennium Group International Holdings Limited's (NASDAQ:MGIH) Shares Climb 88% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Millennium Group International Holdings Limited (NASDAQ:MGIH) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 88% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last month tops off a massive increase of 142% in the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Millennium Group International Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Packaging industry in the United States, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Millennium Group International Holdings

How Has Millennium Group International Holdings Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Millennium Group International Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Millennium Group International Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

How Is Millennium Group International Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Millennium Group International Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 16% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 40% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 16% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Millennium Group International Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Millennium Group International Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Millennium Group International Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Millennium Group International Holdings (at least 2 which are significant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.