Progressive (PGR): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Revenue Growth and Shifting Share Price Performance

Progressive (PGR) has quietly outperformed many insurers over the past three years, and its recent 7% revenue growth, despite softer profit trends, has investors revisiting what a reasonable valuation looks like now.

See our latest analysis for Progressive.

At a share price of $222.89, Progressive has seen a solid 1 month share price return of 6.68%, even as its year to date share price return of negative 7.38% and 1 year total shareholder return of negative 10.65% signal cooling momentum after an exceptional 3 year total shareholder return of 77.43%.

If Progressive has you thinking about what comes next in financials, it might be a good moment to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With earnings growth dipping even as revenue and long run returns remain robust, investors face a key question: is Progressive still trading below its true value or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 13.4% Undervalued

With Progressive closing at $222.89 against a narrative fair value near $257, the current setup hinges on how margins and growth reshape over the next few years.

Continued investment in analytics, telematics, and product model enhancements further improves underwriting accuracy and expense leverage, leading to lower loss ratios and improved net margins over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how earnings can shrink while the valuation still points higher, and why a richer future multiple underpins that call? The narrative leans on nuanced revenue growth, margin reset assumptions, and a punchy earnings trajectory that looks very different to today. Want to see which numbers have to fall into place for this fair value to work?

Result: Fair Value of $257.44 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying competition and structurally higher claim costs could compress margins faster than expected and challenge the case for a higher future earnings multiple.

Find out about the key risks to this Progressive narrative.

Build Your Own Progressive Narrative

If this perspective does not fully align with your own, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Progressive research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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