Why Oscar Health (OSCR) Can’t Turn Rising Revenue Into Profits—Is Its Growth Model Sustainable?

• In July 2025, Oscar Health revised its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting total revenue between US$12.0 billion and US$12.2 billion and an operating loss of US$300 million to US$200 million.
• This update underscores the company’s ongoing struggle to achieve profitability even as it forecasts robust top-line growth for the year.
• We'll explore how projecting continued operating losses alongside rising revenue shapes Oscar Health's investment outlook and potential risks.

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Oscar Health Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder of Oscar Health, you need to believe the company can eventually convert its strong revenue growth into consistent profitability, a thesis complicated by the recent guidance update. The July 2025 revision, projecting full-year revenue between US$12.0 billion and US$12.2 billion alongside an operating loss of US$300 million to US$200 million, underlines the immediate tension: surging sales but continued difficulty in breaking even. While this does not materially shift the near-term catalyst of improved operating margins, it does highlight the pressing risk of persistent net losses if cost controls or operational improvements do not keep pace.

Among recent announcements, the earlier February 2025 guidance stands out, when Oscar Health anticipated significantly lower revenue but projected net income profitability. The July update, revising both revenue and expectations of continued operating losses, suggests a shift in near-term outcomes for margin improvement, which remains the key focal point for investors monitoring the company's path to sustained profits.

Yet, against optimism about growth, investors should pay close attention to the risk that assumptions underlying Oscar’s forecasts may not hold, particularly if membership trends or payment rates fluctuate unexpectedly...

Read the full narrative on Oscar Health (it's free!)

Oscar Health is projected to reach $12.3 billion in revenue and $445.9 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on a 7.0% annual revenue growth rate and an earnings increase of $322.6 million from the current $123.3 million.

Uncover how Oscar Health's forecasts yield a $14.24 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members set Oscar Health’s fair value estimates between US$10.42 and US$66 across 18 different forecasts. With continued operating losses a headline risk, these contrasting views show how perspectives on future profit potential can diverge, inviting you to explore a broad range of opinions.

Explore 18 other fair value estimates on Oscar Health - why the stock might be worth 26% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Oscar Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Oscar Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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