Oscar Health (OSCR): Revisiting Valuation After Analyst Upgrade and Bullish Options Signal Growing Investor Confidence

Oscar Health (OSCR) just caught traders attention after a wave of bullish options activity and a fresh analyst upgrade, which has put its structural strengths and long term growth story back in focus.

See our latest analysis for Oscar Health.

Those bullish options bets and the upgrade are landing just as Oscar’s 2025 year to date share price return of 26.79% builds on a massive three year total shareholder return of 527.01%. This suggests momentum is pausing rather than breaking.

If Oscar’s story has your attention, this is also a good moment to explore other innovative healthcare names through our curated healthcare stocks and see what else is gaining traction.

Yet with mixed analyst targets, recent options optimism, and losses still on the income statement, is Oscar Health quietly undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in its next chapter of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.5% Overvalued

With the most followed fair value sitting at $14.38 against a last close of $17.18, the narrative argues that Oscar’s rally is running ahead of fundamentals.

The analyst price target for Oscar Health has been raised meaningfully, with fair value increasing from $12.88 to $14.38 per share. Analysts attribute this change to stronger long term revenue growth prospects, slightly lower perceived risk, and higher future earnings multiples, despite modestly lower margin assumptions.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies paying up for a still unprofitable insurer? This narrative leans on accelerating membership, expanding margins, and a punchy future earnings multiple. Curious which revenue and earnings milestones have to be hit to defend that valuation and why the discount rate barely budges even as risks stack up? Read on to unpack the math behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $14.38 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, stronger than expected digital efficiencies and faster margin recovery from aggressive repricing could quickly make today’s fair value appear outdated.

Find out about the key risks to this Oscar Health narrative.

Another View: Multiples Point to Value, Not Excess

While the narrative calls Oscar Health about 19.5% overvalued on future earnings, its current price to sales ratio of 0.4 times undercuts the US Insurance industry at 1.1 times and a fair ratio of 0.7 times. That gap may indicate potential upside if sentiment normalizes, or a possible value trap if profitability disappoints.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

If this perspective does not quite fit your view, or you would rather dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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