Lincoln National (LNC): Evaluating Valuation After Profit Turnaround and $500 Million Debt Deal

Lincoln National (LNC) caught investors’ eyes after posting a swing from a net loss last year to a solid profit for the third quarter, along with news of a newly completed $500 million fixed income offering. This combination highlights both improving fundamentals and strategic capital moves.

See our latest analysis for Lincoln National.

This turnaround has not gone unnoticed in the market. Lincoln National’s share price has climbed 28.1% year-to-date and total shareholder return has reached 16.7% over the past year. With momentum building thanks to stronger earnings, recent capital moves, and another preferred dividend declared, investors appear to be reassessing the company's outlook for both durability and growth.

If this kind of rebound has you curious about what other stocks are gathering pace, now is the perfect moment to broaden your radar and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Lincoln National’s shares up sharply this year, the key question becomes whether the stock still offers value or if recent gains have already factored in the company’s improved fundamentals and future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.8% Undervalued

With Lincoln National’s most-followed narrative pegging fair value at $43.75 compared to a last close of $40.79, expectations are set just a few dollars higher. The setup reflects optimism for further upside but signals that most of the move may already be in.

Lincoln National's transformation toward a more diversified and capital-efficient product mix, especially in higher-margin, less capital-intensive areas like supplemental health and spread-based annuities, positions them to benefit from rising demand as Americans focus more on retirement readiness and financial wellness. This supports stronger long-term revenue and net margin growth. The ongoing digital modernization and investments in technology, from enhanced digital tools for customers and producers to automation in sales and claims, are expected to drive expense reductions and boost operational scalability. This may improve net margins and support higher future earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s propping up this bullish target? There are bold calls on future profits, razor-sharp margin forecasts, and a revenue runway that could surprise. Curious about which assumptions push the valuation higher than the price? See exactly which projections are driving this narrative—one number in particular could turn heads.

Result: Fair Value of $43.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain. Persistent outflows and uncertainty around consistent capital returns could quickly shift sentiment and challenge the turnaround story in the period ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Lincoln National narrative.

Build Your Own Lincoln National Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper on your own terms, you can shape a personal Lincoln National story in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Lincoln National research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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