Lincoln Financial (LNC): Assessing Valuation Following New Private Credit Fund Launch with Bain Capital

If you have been following Lincoln National (LNC) lately, you probably noticed some buzz around their latest move. The company has officially rolled out the Lincoln Bain Capital Total Credit Fund, marking a meaningful expansion of its investment product lineup. This launch, done in partnership with Bain Capital, aims to open up private credit investment opportunities to individual investors, an area that was previously reserved for institutions and high-net-worth clients. For investors wondering what this means for Lincoln’s value story, there is reason to take a closer look.

Over the past year, Lincoln National has demonstrated a sharp turnaround, with the stock rising 51% and climbing over 32% year-to-date. Momentum has been especially strong over the past three months, with shares jumping nearly 30%. This product launch builds on recent leadership changes and strategic initiatives, suggesting that the company is serious about tapping new growth avenues and evolving its offering for a broader client base.

With the stock’s strong gains this year, investors have to ask whether this new fund opens the door to more upside, or if the market is already pricing in all of Lincoln’s future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

According to the most widely followed valuation narrative, Lincoln National is trading in line with fair value, based on future earnings and risk assumptions applied by the analyst consensus. This reflects expectations for modest but steady growth, keeping the share price near its calculated fair value.

Strengthening distribution through expanded broker partnerships and penetration into local markets, coupled with targeted product innovation (for example, RILA and supplemental health), broadens Lincoln's access to faster-growing and underpenetrated customer segments. This approach provides a catalyst for premium and fee revenue growth.

Want to see what is driving this fair value call? There is an essential piece behind the narrative: bold projections for future growth and margin gains, plus a stretched profit multiple the market is not expecting. Curious how analysts connect these financial dots to justify today’s price? Uncover the core assumptions powering this fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $41.73 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent legacy product risks and potential technology integration hurdles remain. As a result, improvements could stall if these issues aren't carefully managed.

Find out about the key risks to this Lincoln National narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Perspective

Taking a different approach, our DCF model estimates Lincoln National to be undervalued relative to today's trading price. This suggests there may be more value than first meets the eye. But is the market right?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Lincoln National to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Lincoln National Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers, you can craft your own analysis in just a few minutes by using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Lincoln National research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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