Improved Earnings Required Before Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) Stock's 36% Jump Looks Justified

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 36% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 164% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Heritage Insurance Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 6.1x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 19x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Heritage Insurance Holdings certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Heritage Insurance Holdings

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Heritage Insurance Holdings.

Is There Any Growth For Heritage Insurance Holdings?

Heritage Insurance Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 99% last year. Although, its longer-term performance hasn't been as strong with three-year EPS growth being relatively non-existent overall. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 4.9% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 16% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's understandable that Heritage Insurance Holdings' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Heritage Insurance Holdings' P/E

Even after such a strong price move, Heritage Insurance Holdings' P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

As we suspected, our examination of Heritage Insurance Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Heritage Insurance Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.