Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE:HMN) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (NYSE:HMN) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Horace Mann Educators reported US$416m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.92 beat expectations, being 2.2% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Horace Mann Educators after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Horace Mann Educators from three analysts is for revenues of US$1.70b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 37% to US$3.85. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.88 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Horace Mann Educators

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$45.00, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Horace Mann Educators, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$46.00 and the most bearish at US$44.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Horace Mann Educators is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Horace Mann Educators' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Horace Mann Educators' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.4% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.2% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Horace Mann Educators is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$45.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Horace Mann Educators analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Horace Mann Educators' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.