HCI Group, Inc.

NYSE:HCI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.1b

HCI Group Valuation

Is HCI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HCI ($111.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($385.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HCI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HCI?

Key metric: As HCI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HCI. This is calculated by dividing HCI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HCI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsUS$140.49m
Market CapUS$1.15b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HCI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HCI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13x
IGIC International General Insurance Holdings
7.9x1.9%US$1.0b
EIG Employers Holdings
9.2x-19.2%US$1.2b
SAFT Safety Insurance Group
16.3xn/aUS$1.2b
TIPT Tiptree
18.5xn/aUS$754.5m
HCI HCI Group
8.3x6.2%US$1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HCI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UTGN UTG
1.9xn/aUS$88.57m
AORE.F American Overseas Group
2.1xn/aUS$16.44m
CUII China United Insurance Service
0.0003xn/aUS$3.13k
No more companies available in this PE range
HCI 8.3xIndustry Avg. 12.8xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HCI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HCI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HCI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$111.25
US$140.25
+26.1%
6.4%US$150.00US$126.00n/a4
Dec ’25US$121.87
US$138.75
+13.9%
8.2%US$150.00US$120.00n/a4
Nov ’25US$112.02
US$136.25
+21.6%
7.0%US$145.00US$120.00n/a4
Oct ’25US$107.40
US$138.75
+29.2%
3.9%US$145.00US$130.00n/a4
Sep ’25US$95.83
US$138.75
+44.8%
3.9%US$145.00US$130.00n/a4
Aug ’25US$91.44
US$134.25
+46.8%
5.5%US$140.00US$122.00n/a4
Jul ’25US$92.38
US$134.25
+45.3%
5.5%US$140.00US$122.00n/a4
Jun ’25US$95.88
US$134.25
+40.0%
5.5%US$140.00US$122.00n/a4
May ’25US$114.26
US$128.50
+12.5%
5.9%US$140.00US$120.00n/a4
Apr ’25US$115.18
US$128.50
+11.6%
5.9%US$140.00US$120.00n/a4
Mar ’25US$99.43
US$103.00
+3.6%
8.5%US$112.00US$90.00n/a4
Feb ’25US$91.11
US$103.00
+13.1%
8.5%US$112.00US$90.00n/a4
Jan ’25US$87.40
US$99.00
+13.3%
7.4%US$110.00US$90.00n/a4
Dec ’24US$85.91
US$99.00
+15.2%
7.4%US$110.00US$90.00US$121.874
Nov ’24US$61.49
US$82.67
+34.4%
16.0%US$100.00US$68.00US$112.023
Oct ’24US$54.29
US$82.67
+52.3%
16.0%US$100.00US$68.00US$107.403
Sep ’24US$52.77
US$82.67
+56.7%
16.0%US$100.00US$68.00US$95.833
Aug ’24US$62.01
US$80.67
+30.1%
17.4%US$100.00US$67.00US$91.443
Jul ’24US$61.78
US$80.67
+30.6%
17.4%US$100.00US$67.00US$92.383
Jun ’24US$53.39
US$80.67
+51.1%
17.4%US$100.00US$67.00US$95.883
May ’24US$50.59
US$80.33
+58.8%
17.9%US$100.00US$66.00US$114.263
Apr ’24US$53.60
US$80.33
+49.9%
17.9%US$100.00US$66.00US$115.183
Mar ’24US$52.72
US$65.50
+24.2%
14.5%US$75.00US$56.00US$99.432
Feb ’24US$49.93
US$65.50
+31.2%
14.5%US$75.00US$56.00US$91.112
Jan ’24US$39.59
US$85.00
+114.7%
11.8%US$95.00US$75.00US$87.402
Dec ’23US$37.96
US$85.00
+123.9%
11.8%US$95.00US$75.00US$85.912

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/19 05:33
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/19 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

HCI Group, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Casey AlexanderCompass Point Research & Trading, LLC
Casey AlexanderGilford Securities
Matthew CarlettiJMP Securities