Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

NYSE:AMBC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$585.4m

Ambac Financial Group Valuation

Is AMBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AMBC ($12.34) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($5.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMBC is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMBC?

Key metric: As AMBC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AMBC. This is calculated by dividing AMBC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AMBC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesUS$398.00m
Market CapUS$585.45m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AMBC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AMBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings
0.4x-1.0%US$635.6m
DGIC.A Donegal Group
0.5x6.3%US$525.8m
UFCS United Fire Group
0.5x8.1%US$644.2m
TIPT Tiptree
0.4xn/aUS$824.5m
AMBC Ambac Financial Group
1.5xn/aUS$585.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AMBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AMBC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GOCO GoHealth
0.2x8.0%US$273.03m
CCG Cheche Group
0.2x5.6%US$69.58m
0.2x15.8%US$64.08m
AAME Atlantic American
0.2xn/aUS$34.07m
AMBC 1.5xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies23PS00.81.62.43.24+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AMBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1.1x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMBC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMBC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AMBC's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMBC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.34
US$17.00
+37.8%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Nov ’25US$11.21
US$17.00
+51.7%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Oct ’25US$11.21
US$17.00
+51.7%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Sep ’25US$11.70
US$16.00
+36.8%
18.8%US$19.00US$13.00n/a2
Aug ’25US$12.48
US$17.50
+40.2%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
Jul ’25US$12.51
US$17.50
+39.9%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$17.72
US$17.50
-1.2%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
May ’25US$14.82
US$17.00
+14.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$15.49
US$17.00
+9.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$16.19
US$17.00
+5.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$16.27
US$17.00
+4.5%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$16.48
US$17.00
+3.2%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$14.84
US$17.00
+14.6%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$12.35
US$17.00
+37.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.212
Oct ’24US$12.06
US$17.00
+41.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.212
Sep ’24US$13.16
US$17.00
+29.2%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.702
Aug ’24US$14.05
US$17.00
+21.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.482
Jul ’24US$14.24
US$17.00
+19.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.512
Jun ’24US$13.89
US$17.00
+22.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$17.722
May ’24US$15.78
US$17.00
+7.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.822
Apr ’24US$15.48
US$17.00
+9.8%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$15.492
Mar ’24US$17.07
US$17.00
-0.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.192
Feb ’24US$16.61
US$17.00
+2.3%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.272
Jan ’24US$17.44
US$17.00
-2.5%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.482
Dec ’23US$16.20
US$17.00
+4.9%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.842

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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