Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

NYSE:AMBC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$585.4m

Ambac Financial Group Valuation

Is AMBC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AMBC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AMBC ($12.41) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($5.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AMBC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMBC?

Key metric: As AMBC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AMBC. This is calculated by dividing AMBC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AMBC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesUS$398.00m
Market CapUS$585.45m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AMBC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AMBC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.5x
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings
0.4x-1.0%US$583.3m
DGIC.A Donegal Group
0.5x6.4%US$518.7m
TIPT Tiptree
0.4xn/aUS$767.1m
UFCS United Fire Group
0.6x10.4%US$721.7m
AMBC Ambac Financial Group
1.5xn/aUS$585.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AMBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (0.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AMBC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GOCO GoHealth
0.2x7.5%US$283.34m
CCG Cheche Group
0.1x5.4%US$70.05m
AIFU AIX
0.2x15.8%US$64.36m
HUIZ Huize Holding
0.2x8.0%US$32.04m
AMBC 1.5xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies19PS00.81.62.43.24+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AMBC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AMBC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AMBC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AMBC's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AMBC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.41
US$17.00
+37.0%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Dec ’25US$12.84
US$17.00
+32.4%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Nov ’25US$11.21
US$17.00
+51.7%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Oct ’25US$11.21
US$17.00
+51.7%
11.8%US$19.00US$15.00n/a2
Sep ’25US$11.70
US$16.00
+36.8%
18.8%US$19.00US$13.00n/a2
Aug ’25US$12.48
US$17.50
+40.2%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
Jul ’25US$12.51
US$17.50
+39.9%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$17.72
US$17.50
-1.2%
8.6%US$19.00US$16.00n/a2
May ’25US$14.82
US$17.00
+14.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$15.49
US$17.00
+9.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$16.19
US$17.00
+5.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$16.27
US$17.00
+4.5%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$16.48
US$17.00
+3.2%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$14.84
US$17.00
+14.6%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.842
Nov ’24US$12.35
US$17.00
+37.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.212
Oct ’24US$12.06
US$17.00
+41.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.212
Sep ’24US$13.16
US$17.00
+29.2%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$11.702
Aug ’24US$14.05
US$17.00
+21.0%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.482
Jul ’24US$14.24
US$17.00
+19.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$12.512
Jun ’24US$13.89
US$17.00
+22.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$17.722
May ’24US$15.78
US$17.00
+7.7%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.822
Apr ’24US$15.48
US$17.00
+9.8%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$15.492
Mar ’24US$17.07
US$17.00
-0.4%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.192
Feb ’24US$16.61
US$17.00
+2.3%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.272
Jan ’24US$17.44
US$17.00
-2.5%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$16.482
Dec ’23US$16.20
US$17.00
+4.9%
5.9%US$18.00US$16.00US$14.842

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/30 02:52
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Giuliano Anderes BolognaBTIG
Catherine SeifertCFRA Equity Research
Mary KaneCitigroup Inc