Allstate (ALL) Is Up 5.9% After Posting Strong Q3 Earnings and Accelerated Buybacks – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• The Allstate Corporation recently announced its third-quarter and nine-month 2025 results, posting revenue of US$17.26 billion and quarterly net income of US$3.75 billion, both significantly higher than the prior-year period.
• Allstate’s strong operational results were accompanied by progress on its share buyback initiative, with more than US$800 million of shares repurchased since February 2025.
• Given this substantial increase in earnings, we’ll now explore how Allstate’s latest results impact its long-term investment narrative.

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Allstate Investment Narrative Recap

To be an Allstate shareholder right now, it helps to believe the company can maintain profitability and grow its core property and casualty business, even as industry trends evolve. Allstate's standout Q3 results and higher net income dramatically improved its short-term outlook, giving the main catalyst, expansion of digitally enabled insurance products, added credibility. While these results show resilience, the biggest risk from increased catastrophe losses remains significant, and this news doesn’t fundamentally change that concern.

Among recent announcements, Allstate’s continued share buybacks stand out following the strong earnings release. Over $800 million in repurchases since February 2025 signals ongoing capital returns while operational performance is robust. This move fits the company’s broader effort to deliver value as it pursues new product rollouts, although the longer-term threat posed by rising claims severity and industry competition persists.

However, investors should not overlook the potential impact of ongoing catastrophe losses and climate pressures on future results…

Read the full narrative on Allstate (it's free!)

Allstate's outlook anticipates $76.3 billion in revenue and $4.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a forecasted annual revenue growth rate of 4.9% and represents a decrease of $1.4 billion in earnings from the current $5.7 billion.

Uncover how Allstate's forecasts yield a $233.45 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Allstate vary widely from US$188 to US$673, reflecting sharply different growth outlooks. With catastrophe-related risk still a key factor, you can compare these perspectives to your own expectations for Allstate’s long-term resilience.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Allstate - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Allstate Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Allstate research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Allstate research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Allstate's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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