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MED

Medifast NYSE:MED Stock Report

Last Price

US$136.79

Market Cap

US$1.5b

7D

-1.4%

1Y

-42.0%

Updated

12 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
MED fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance3/6
Financial Health5/6
Dividends3/6

MED Stock Overview

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific.

Medifast Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Medifast
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$136.79
52 Week HighUS$239.56
52 Week LowUS$125.18
Beta1.1
1 Month Change-21.55%
3 Month Change-23.53%
1 Year Change-42.04%
3 Year Change34.78%
5 Year Change145.06%
Change since IPO2,387.09%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 09
Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Analysts Are Reducing Their Forecasts For This Year

Today is shaping up negative for Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial...

Shareholder Returns

MEDUS Personal ProductsUS Market
7D-1.4%-1.3%1.3%
1Y-42.0%-20.3%-11.7%

Return vs Industry: MED underperformed the US Personal Products industry which returned -20.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MED underperformed the US Market which returned -11.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MED's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MED volatility
MED Average Weekly Movement7.7%
Personal Products Industry Average Movement10.8%
Market Average Movement7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: MED is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MED's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1980984Dan Chardhttps://medifastinc.com

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform.

Medifast Fundamentals Summary

How do Medifast's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MED fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.50b
Earnings (TTM)US$156.90m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.66b

9.6x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MED income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.66b
Cost of RevenueUS$452.85m
Gross ProfitUS$1.21b
Other ExpensesUS$1.05b
EarningsUS$156.90m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)14.32
Gross Margin72.76%
Net Profit Margin9.44%
Debt/Equity Ratio20.9%

How did MED perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.8%

Current Dividend Yield

45%

Payout Ratio
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MED undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MED?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MED key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.9x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MED's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MED PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for MED vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.1x
ELF e.l.f. Beauty
68.8x26.4%US$1.9b
USNA USANA Health Sciences
14.9x-2.6%US$1.3b
NUS Nu Skin Enterprises
20.4x15.4%US$2.3b
EPC Edgewell Personal Care
20.2x12.9%US$2.2b
MED Medifast
9.6x10.7%US$1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (31.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MED's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Personal Products Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the US Personal Products industry average (17.1x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MED's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MED PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.6x
Fair PE Ratio21x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MED is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MED when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MED ($136.79) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($133.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MED is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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Future Growth

How is Medifast forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


10.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MED's forecast earnings growth (10.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: MED's earnings (10.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MED's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MED's revenue (8.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MED's revenue (8.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MED's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


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Past Performance

How has Medifast performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


35.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MED has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MED's current net profit margins (9.4%) are lower than last year (11.8%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MED's earnings have grown significantly by 35.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MED's earnings growth over the past year (4.3%) is below its 5-year average (35.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MED earnings growth over the past year (4.3%) underperformed the Personal Products industry 16.1%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: MED's Return on Equity (121.2%) is considered outstanding.


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Financial Health

How is Medifast's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MED's short term assets ($243.3M) exceed its short term liabilities ($188.2M).

Long Term Liabilities: MED's short term assets ($243.3M) exceed its long term liabilities ($22.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MED has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if MED's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MED's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (354.7%).

Interest Coverage: MED's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (462x coverage).


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Medifast current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage


4.80%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MED's dividend (4.8%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.49%).

High Dividend: MED's dividend (4.8%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, MED has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MED's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 6 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45.1%), MED's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (105.8%), MED's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.


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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Dan Chard (57 yo)

5.83yrs

Tenure

US$6,930,636

Compensation

Mr. Daniel R. Chard, also known as Dan, has been Chief Executive Officer of Medifast, Inc. since October 3, 2016 and Director since October 3, 2016 and also serves as its Executive Chairman since December...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Dan's total compensation ($USD6.93M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.40M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Dan's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MED's management team is considered experienced (3.2 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: MED's board of directors are considered experienced (7.2 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Medifast, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Medifast, Inc.
  • Ticker: MED
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1980
  • Industry: Personal Products
  • Sector: Household
  • Implied Market Cap: US$1.499b
  • Shares outstanding: 10.96m
  • Website: https://medifastinc.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Medifast, Inc.
  • 100 International Drive
  • 18th Floor
  • Baltimore
  • Maryland
  • 21202
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/12 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.