Medifast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Medifast's revenue is forecast to decline at 13.4% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 4.4% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 5% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 2.2% in 3 years.

Key information

4.4%

Earnings growth rate

5.0%

EPS growth rate

Personal Products earnings growth	25.8%
Revenue growth rate	-13.4%
Future return on equity	2.2%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	05 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Medifast: GLP-1 Fears Are Overblown, But Proof Points For Turnaround Are Still Missing

Jun 26

Medifast: Significant Undervaluation Even As Struggles Persist

May 24

At US$22.76, Is Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Worth Looking At Closely?

May 24

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 32% Price Drop

May 24

Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings

May 06

The Returns On Capital At Medifast (NYSE:MED) Don't Inspire Confidence

May 01

Medifast: Cheap Valuation, Uncertain Future

Mar 20

Medifast Is Getting Attractive

Mar 07

Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 26% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Earnings

Feb 22

Medifast Share Price Loses Weight, But Is There Still Value To Be Had?

Jan 20

Are Investors Undervaluing Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) By 47%?

Dec 09

Medifast: Good On Paper, But A Slowdown In Sales Is Very Worrisome

Nov 24

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)?

Nov 21

Medifast: Unveiling A Challenge Beyond Weight Loss Drugs

Nov 09

Medifast: The Race To Weight-Loss Drugs Not Lost Yet

Oct 09

Medifast: Take Advantage Of Pessimism Over Weight Loss Drugs

Aug 04

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)?

Jul 26

In The Murky MLM Space, Medifast Might Actually Hold Some Promise

Jul 21

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)

Jul 05

Medifast: In Survival Mode Against Diet Pills And The Recession

Jun 14

Medifast Holds Value During Headwinds

May 28

Medifast Non-GAAP EPS of $3.70 beats by $1.48, revenue of $337.2M beats by $7.1M

Feb 21

Medifast: A Low Earnings Multiple Despite Strong Financial Performance

Feb 07

At US$117, Is Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Worth Looking At Closely?

Jan 19

Medifast declares $1.64 dividend

Dec 08

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)

Dec 01

Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Sluggish Earnings Might Be Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

Nov 10

One Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Analyst Just Made A Major Cut To Next Year's Estimates

Nov 08

Medifast: This High-Yield Blue Chip Dividend Stock Is A Strong Buy

Nov 06

What Does Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) Share Price Indicate?

Oct 20

We Think Medifast (NYSE:MED) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Sep 18

Medifast declares $1.64 dividend

Sep 08

Do Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Sep 02

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MED - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	509	5	20	27	1
12/31/2025	510	3	18	23	2
12/31/2024	598	0	27	35	2
9/30/2024	674	7	34	40	N/A
6/30/2024	770	29	54	61	N/A
3/31/2024	898	68	85	91	N/A
12/31/2023	1,072	99	141	148	N/A
9/30/2023	1,218	120	174	189	N/A
6/30/2023	1,373	133	200	214	N/A
3/31/2023	1,530	142	199	215	N/A
12/31/2022	1,599	144	178	195	N/A
9/30/2022	1,639	151	116	135	N/A
6/30/2022	1,662	157	68	96	N/A
3/31/2022	1,603	165	40	73	N/A
12/31/2021	1,526	164	60	95	N/A
9/30/2021	1,413	158	97	122	N/A
6/30/2021	1,271	150	130	147	N/A
3/31/2021	1,097	125	174	184	N/A
12/31/2020	935	103	139	145	N/A
9/30/2020	841	95	140	145	N/A
6/30/2020	759	76	118	121	N/A
3/31/2020	726	76	72	78	N/A
12/31/2019	714	78	74	84	N/A
9/30/2019	689	74	70	80	N/A
6/30/2019	638	72	60	69	N/A
3/31/2019	568	64	67	76	N/A
12/31/2018	501	56	56	61	N/A
9/30/2018	433	47	51	55	N/A
6/30/2018	371	40	N/A	61	N/A
3/31/2018	330	34	N/A	55	N/A
12/31/2017	302	28	N/A	43	N/A
9/30/2017	286	25	N/A	33	N/A
6/30/2017	277	24	N/A	27	N/A
3/31/2017	273	20	N/A	24	N/A
12/31/2016	275	18	N/A	25	N/A
9/30/2016	273	18	N/A	28	N/A
6/30/2016	271	17	N/A	30	N/A
3/31/2016	272	19	N/A	27	N/A
12/31/2015	273	20	N/A	29	N/A
9/30/2015	274	18	N/A	28	N/A
6/30/2015	277	18	N/A	27	N/A
3/31/2015	279	19	N/A	25	N/A
12/31/2014	285	21	N/A	26	N/A
9/30/2014	267	27	N/A	33	N/A
6/30/2014	285	27	N/A	31	N/A
3/31/2014	307	28	N/A	38	N/A
12/31/2013	324	27	N/A	42	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MED's forecast earnings growth (4.4% per year) is above the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: MED's earnings (4.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MED's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: MED's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MED's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MED's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (2.2%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/22 03:23
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Medifast, Inc. is covered by 12 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Anand Vankawala	Avondale Partners
Kara Anderson	B. Riley Securities, Inc.
Scott Van Winkle	Canaccord Genuity

Medifast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.04 loss, revenue downgraded

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2024

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.32 loss

Price target decreased by 15% to US$21.25

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 54%

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024

Recent updates

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 15%

Now 23% undervalued

Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Industry

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.04 loss, revenue downgraded

Medifast: Earnings Surprise, New AI Technologies, And Extremely Undervalued

Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2024

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to US$0.32 loss

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 04, 2024

Medifast: Reorganization, GLP-1 Medication, And FCF Imply Undervaluation

Medifast Business Continues To Shrink, Stock Still Risky

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 05, 2024

Medifast: GLP-1 Fears Are Overblown, But Proof Points For Turnaround Are Still Missing

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Price target decreased by 15% to US$21.25

Medifast: Significant Undervaluation Even As Struggles Persist

At US$22.76, Is Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Worth Looking At Closely?

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 32% Price Drop

Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 25%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 54%

The Returns On Capital At Medifast (NYSE:MED) Don't Inspire Confidence

First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on Apr 29, 2024

Medifast: Cheap Valuation, Uncertain Future

Independent Director recently sold US$109k worth of stock

Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Medifast Is Getting Attractive

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17%

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 15%

New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth

Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 26% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Earnings

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Medifast Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter of 2024

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 20, 2024

Price target decreased by 14% to US$62.50

Medifast Share Price Loses Weight, But Is There Still Value To Be Had?

Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16%

Are Investors Undervaluing Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) By 47%?

Medifast: Good On Paper, But A Slowdown In Sales Is Very Worrisome

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)?

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%, revenue downgraded

Medifast: Unveiling A Challenge Beyond Weight Loss Drugs

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Full Year 2023

New minor risk - Insider selling

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 06, 2023

Medifast: The Race To Weight-Loss Drugs Not Lost Yet

Medifast, Inc. Announces Optavia Active Now Available

Medifast, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on November 7, 2023

Lead Independent Director notifies of intention to sell stock

Price target decreased by 14% to US$80.00

Medifast, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the Third Quarter 2023

Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Medifast: Take Advantage Of Pessimism Over Weight Loss Drugs

Price target increased by 31% to US$93.00

Medifast Unveils New Product Line, Optavia Active

Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)?

Medifast, Inc. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Aug 07, 2023

In The Murky MLM Space, Medifast Might Actually Hold Some Promise

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)

Medifast, Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend, Payable on August 8, 2023

Medifast: In Survival Mode Against Diet Pills And The Recession

Medifast Holds Value During Headwinds