Medifast, Inc.

NYSE:MED Stock Report

Market Cap: US$129.1m

Medifast Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Medifast's revenue is forecast to decline at 17% per annum while its annual earnings are expected to grow at 52.8% per year. EPS is expected to grow by 52.8% per annum.

Key information

52.8%

Earnings growth rate

52.82%

EPS growth rate

Personal Products earnings growth33.0%
Revenue growth rate-17.0%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • May 01

Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$15.00 Price Target

It's been a good week for Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest...

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 19

MED: Insurance Reimbursement And Metabolic Health Science Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have reduced their Medifast price targets to reflect updated assumptions that now indicate a slower revenue decline, improved profit margins, and a lower forward P/E. Taken together, these factors reset estimated fair value closer to $12.
Seeking Alpha • May 12

Medifast: Worth Putting On A Watchlist

Summary Medifast has continued to report concerning financials. A shrinking coach network lowers revenues, and costs remain too high. A turnaround can't be written off quite yet. MED's coach productivity has improved clearly, and a shift to a metabolic health focus from weight loss could work out. Negative enterprise value clearly implies upside potential; I estimate 47% upside to $18.5 if MED's earnings stabilize over the mid-term. Such upside is speculative, though. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 03

MED: Insurance Reimbursement And Metabolic Health Data Will Support Balanced Long-Term Outlook

Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Medifast, reflecting small tweaks to assumptions around the discount rate, profit margin, and future P/E, while maintaining a fair value of $12.00. These changes together point to a slightly refined view of the company’s risk and earnings outlook.
Narrative Update • Apr 18

MED: Metabolic Health Initiatives And Insurance Access Will Support Balanced Long-Term Outlook

Analyst price targets for Medifast have been reset, with updated assumptions pointing to a fair value of $12.00 per share. This is now based on a slightly higher discount rate, a similar revenue outlook, a higher profit margin and a lower forward P/E, which analysts cite as the main drivers of the change.
Narrative Update • Apr 04

MED: Future Leadership And Metabolic Health Expansion Will Support Long-Term Upside

Analysts have marginally adjusted their price target on Medifast, reflecting slightly higher assumed profit margins and a modestly higher discount rate while keeping fair value at $12. They are framing this as a fine tuning of expectations rather than a major shift in outlook.
Narrative Update • Mar 20

MED: Future Leadership Shift Will Seek To Unlock Metabolic Health Opportunity

Analysts have slightly revised their price target on Medifast, with the updated fair value holding at $12.00 as small adjustments to the discount rate and future P/E assumptions refine the underlying model rather than indicate a major change in outlook. What's in the News OPTAVIA’s comprehensive metabolic health system is now eligible for reimbursement on select insurance plans via HSA and FSA funds, which can allow some clients to use pre tax dollars toward program costs (Product related announcement).
Narrative Update • Mar 05

MED: Future Leadership Shift Will Align With New Metabolic Health System

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Medifast, citing a slightly lower discount rate, a small improvement in projected profit margin, and a shift to a lower future P/E assumption. Together, these factors point to a more cautious valuation framework in dollar terms.
Narrative Update • Feb 19

MED: Future Leadership Shift Will Present Long Term Opportunity

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Medifast from $15 to $12, citing updated assumptions that point to softer revenue growth, lower profit margins, and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Medifast issued earnings guidance for the first quarter of 2026, projecting revenue between US$65,000,000 and US$80,000,000 and a loss per share in a range of US$0.15 to US$0.70 (company guidance).
Analysis Article • Jul 03

Benign Growth For Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Underpins Its Share Price

With a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) may be sending bullish signals at the...
Analysis Article • May 01

Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A US$15.00 Price Target

It's been a good week for Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 20

Medifast: Strong Balance Sheet, But I Lack Conviction In The Turnaround

Summary Medifast enjoyed record profits immediately after the pandemic. The emergence of GLP-1 medications has driven revenue, income, and the number of active Optavia coaches down. Management has laid out a strategy for Medifast to acquire customers who are taking GLP-1s, starting with a collaboration with LifeMD. With a strong balance sheet, but without enough conviction of the success of their strategy, I rate Medifast a Hold. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Jan 09

An Intrinsic Calculation For Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Suggests It's 41% Undervalued

Key Insights Medifast's estimated fair value is US$26.41 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Medifast's US$15.64...
Analysis Article • Dec 11

Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) Business And Shares Still Trailing The Industry

You may think that with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) is a stock worth checking...
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New Narrative • Nov 10

GLP-1 Medication Surge And Stalling Coach Productivity Threaten Revenue Decline

The adoption of weight loss medications impacts Medifast's business model, threatening future revenue and customer acquisition.
Seeking Alpha • Nov 06

Medifast: Earnings Surprise, New AI Technologies, And Extremely Undervalued

Summary Medifast reported better-than-expected quarterly EPS and is investing in new marketing strategies, AI technologies, and supply chain optimization to drive future growth. Despite a decline in the number of coaches and productivity, MED trades close to its book value and continues to generate free cash flow. The company's stock repurchase plan and significant cash reserves indicate confidence in future growth, with a potential valuation target of $78 per share. Risks include declining coach numbers, competition from GLP-1 medications, and short-selling pressures, but MED's current valuation appears undervalued. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 03

Medifast: Reorganization, GLP-1 Medication, And FCF Imply Undervaluation

Summary Medifast's collaboration with LifeMD and acquisition of LifeMD shares are expected to boost business growth and free cash flow. The company's holistic approach combining weight loss formulas, coaches, and GLP-1 medication is a significant competitive advantage. Recent investments in marketing and supply chain optimization initiatives, including the Maryland Distribution Center closure, are likely to enhance FCF margins. Despite recent lower-than-expected EPS, MED's long-term financial growth and undervaluation suggest strong future stock price potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 27

Medifast Business Continues To Shrink, Stock Still Risky

Summary Medifast's stock has plummeted, with dividends still suspended and earnings and revenue are in rapid decline. Despite a strong balance sheet, Medifast faces increased competition and market volatility, leading to a shrinking business. Revenue and earnings are expected to continue declining, making the stock less attractive with higher P/E ratios. Medifast's cash generation has diminished, and the company is focusing on growth rather than dividends, making it a risky investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 26

Medifast: GLP-1 Fears Are Overblown, But Proof Points For Turnaround Are Still Missing

Summary Medifast is a leader in dietary weight management that fell off a cliff since 2022 due to inflationary pressures, the re-opening of restaurants, and the rise of GLP-1 drugs. The company's turnaround plan aims to combine OPTAVIA offerings with direct access to GLP-1 medication through a partnership with LifeMD. At about $20 per share, Medifast may be in deep value territory, but strong negative momentum and the lack of turnaround proof points make it a HOLD at this time. Investors who seek long exposure with an increased margin of safety could consider selling $12.50 MED puts, noting that the company holds over $14 of net cash per share. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 24

Medifast: Significant Undervaluation Even As Struggles Persist

Summary Medifast's financial performance is deteriorating rapidly due to the emergence of drug-weight loss competitors. The company reported a significant decline in revenue and earnings in Q1 2023. Medifast is laying off employees and may need to further reduce its workforce to match the revenue drop. My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is significantly undervalued, but I consider this fair given all the challenges. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • May 24

At US$22.76, Is Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Worth Looking At Closely?

Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial...
Analysis Article • May 24

Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 32% Price Drop

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) shares are down a considerable 32% in the last...
Analysis Article • May 06

Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Conservative Accounting Might Explain Soft Earnings

Medifast, Inc.'s ( NYSE:MED ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. While the headline numbers...
Analysis Article • May 01

The Returns On Capital At Medifast (NYSE:MED) Don't Inspire Confidence

What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a...
Seeking Alpha • Mar 20

Medifast: Cheap Valuation, Uncertain Future

Summary Medifast has had a successful past with continuous growth and strong financial metrics in the health and wellness industry. However, the dynamic nature of the industry raises concerns about the company's future, particularly when considering the recent rise of GLP-1 medications. Investors should consider the implications of industry changes before making a decision on Medifast as an investment. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 07

Medifast Is Getting Attractive

Summary Medifast is experiencing a decline in stock price despite a strong business and consistent cash flow. The company's focus on health and wellness, along with its strategic alliance with LifeMD, positions it for significant upside. Medifast's Optavia solution offers a comprehensive approach to weight loss and has a large addressable market. Shares are a buy with price target of $60. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Feb 22

Medifast, Inc.'s (NYSE:MED) 26% Dip In Price Shows Sentiment Is Matching Earnings

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty days...
Seeking Alpha • Jan 20

Medifast Share Price Loses Weight, But Is There Still Value To Be Had?

Summary Medifast is a weight loss and wellness program that has experienced a significant decrease in market cap and revenue in 2023. The company's business model relies on recruiting coaches to sell their program and products, which has been successful in generating revenue and dividends for investors. However, there are risks associated with supply disruption, market volatility, reputation, and government regulation that could impact the company's future performance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Dec 09

Are Investors Undervaluing Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) By 47%?

Key Insights Medifast's estimated fair value is US$140 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 24

Medifast: Good On Paper, But A Slowdown In Sales Is Very Worrisome

Summary Medifast has strong financials with a healthy cash position and no debt, but its sales have plummeted, and its business model is questionable. MED's efficiency and profitability metrics are impressive, but its high-priced products may deter customers. The decline in sales can be attributed to tough macroeconomic conditions and competition from weight loss drugs, and the future outlook is uncertain. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Analysis Article • Nov 21

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED)?

Medifast, Inc. ( NYSE:MED ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw significant share price movement during...
Seeking Alpha • Nov 09

Medifast: Unveiling A Challenge Beyond Weight Loss Drugs

Summary Medifast, Inc. stock is down 80% from its mid-2021 peak, and from a valuation perspective, it looks like a veritable deep-value opportunity. Medifast is currently facing challenges due to elevated consumer price inflation, but increasingly also due to weight loss drugs like Wegovy and soon also Zepbound (or at least their narrative). In this article, I take a look at Medifast's business model, its profitability, and its balance sheet quality against the backdrop of this undoubtedly challenging environment. I also discuss MED's Q3 earnings and whether there is any truth to the theory that GLP-1 receptor agonists pose an existential threat to Medifast's business model. However, I also highlight another potential investment risk that relates to Medifast's most important asset - its coaches. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:MED - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2027256-79N/A1
12/31/2026280-18-11N/A1
3/31/2026346-20-14N/A
12/31/2025386-1917N/A
9/30/2025430017N/A
6/30/20254804-24N/A
3/31/2025543-71321N/A
12/31/202460221724N/A
9/30/202467473440N/A
6/30/2024770295461N/A
3/31/2024898688591N/A
12/31/20231,07299141148N/A
9/30/20231,218120174189N/A
6/30/20231,373133200214N/A
3/31/20231,530142199215N/A
12/31/20221,599144178195N/A
9/30/20221,639151116135N/A
6/30/20221,6621576896N/A
3/31/20221,6031654073N/A
12/31/20211,5261646095N/A
9/30/20211,41315897122N/A
6/30/20211,271150130147N/A
3/31/20211,097125174184N/A
12/31/2020935103139145N/A
9/30/202084195140145N/A
6/30/202075976118121N/A
3/31/2020726767278N/A
12/31/201971478N/A84N/A
9/30/201968974N/A80N/A
6/30/201963872N/A69N/A
3/31/201956864N/A76N/A
12/31/201850156N/A61N/A
9/30/201843347N/A55N/A
6/30/201837140N/A61N/A
3/31/201833034N/A55N/A
12/31/201730228N/A43N/A
9/30/201728625N/A33N/A
6/30/201727724N/A27N/A
3/31/201727320N/A24N/A
12/31/201627518N/A25N/A
9/30/201627318N/A28N/A
6/30/201627117N/A30N/A
3/31/201627219N/A27N/A
12/31/201527320N/A29N/A
9/30/201527418N/A28N/A
6/30/201527718N/A27N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MED is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: MED is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: MED is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MED's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-17% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MED's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MED's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/20 22:37
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/20 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Medifast, Inc. is covered by 8 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John San MarcoBrean Capital Historical (Janney Montgomery)
Kara AndersonB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Scott Van WinkleCanaccord Genuity