A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (NYSE:USPH) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for U.S. Physical Therapy

The model

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$61.4m	US$58.3m	US$56.7m	US$55.9m	US$55.8m	US$56.0m	US$56.4m	US$57.1m	US$57.9m	US$58.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x1	Est @ -2.73%	Est @ -1.31%	Est @ -0.32%	Est @ 0.37%	Est @ 0.86%	Est @ 1.2%	Est @ 1.44%	Est @ 1.6%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	US$57.9	US$51.9	US$47.6	US$44.3	US$41.7	US$39.5	US$37.6	US$35.9	US$34.3	US$32.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$423m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$59m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.0%– 2.0%) = US$1.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$1.5b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= US$841m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$114, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at U.S. Physical Therapy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.846. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For U.S. Physical Therapy, there are three pertinent items you should explore:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for U.S. Physical Therapy you should be aware of.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for USPH's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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