Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (NYSE:BKD) missed earnings with its latest full-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$2.9b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.84 some 29% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Brookdale Senior Living

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Brookdale Senior Living's two analysts is for revenues of US$3.13b in 2024. This would reflect a notable 9.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 28% to US$0.72. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.14b and losses of US$0.60 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a noticeable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$7.75, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Brookdale Senior Living is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 9.3% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 4.9% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.5% annually. So it looks like Brookdale Senior Living is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.75, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Brookdale Senior Living that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.