Is NovoCure's (NVCR) Rising Active Patient Count Reshaping Its Investment Case?

• NovoCure recently reported strong fiscal Q2 2025 results, surpassing revenue expectations with increased active patient numbers across major markets and signaling business momentum.
• Despite early mixed signals in the Optune Lua launch for non-small cell lung cancer, the continued growth in prescriptions and active patients highlights ongoing potential for broader market expansion.
• We’ll examine how the higher active patient count reported this quarter could shift the investment narrative for NovoCure moving forward.

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NovoCure Investment Narrative Recap

To be a NovoCure shareholder today, you have to believe in the success and future expansion of Tumor Treating Fields therapy, particularly in new cancer indications beyond glioblastoma, and in the company's ability to eventually turn prescription growth into sustainable, profitable operations. The recently reported Q2 2025 results, featuring higher revenues and increased active patient numbers, provide encouraging momentum, but do not materially shift the principal short-term catalyst, which remains evidence of broad and accelerating adoption in non-small cell lung cancer; reimbursement progress is still the biggest near-term risk facing the company.

Among recent announcements, NovoCure’s presentation of PANOVA-3 Phase 3 trial data for advanced pancreatic cancer is especially relevant. The two-month improvement in median overall survival over standard treatment underscores the company's push for new indications, which could serve as a future revenue driver if prescription growth in core launches slows or reimbursement hurdles persist.

However, against this backdrop of clinical progress, investors should be aware that persistent operating losses and uncertainty around widespread reimbursement...

Read the full narrative on NovoCure (it's free!)

NovoCure's outlook projects $863.5 million in revenue and $106.6 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on an assumed annual revenue growth rate of 11.1% and an earnings increase of $277.6 million from current earnings of -$171.0 million.

Uncover how NovoCure's forecasts yield a $27.19 fair value, a 134% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community's fair value estimates for NovoCure range widely from US$27.19 to US$60.81 based on three different perspectives. With ongoing patient growth but unclear profitability in sight, explore how community and market expectations might align or diverge for future returns.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on NovoCure - why the stock might be worth over 5x more than the current price!

Build Your Own NovoCure Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your NovoCure research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free NovoCure research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate NovoCure's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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