ICU Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICUI) Just Reported And Analysts Have Been Lifting Their Price Targets

ICU Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICUI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.7% to US$172 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 87% toUS$1.35 per share. Revenues of US$589m did beat expectations by 2.2%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for ICU Medical

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ICU Medical's seven analysts is for revenues of US$2.40b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 74% to US$1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.41b and losses of US$0.76 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on ICU Medical even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

Despite expectations of heavier losses next year,the analysts have lifted their price target 14% to US$199, perhaps implying these losses are not expected to be recurring over the long term. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on ICU Medical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$225 and the most bearish at US$178 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that ICU Medical is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that ICU Medical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 16% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ICU Medical is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ICU Medical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ICU Medical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with ICU Medical (including 1 which is significant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.