Assessing Align Technology (ALGN) Valuation After Invisalign Mandibular Launch and 6% Share Price Jump

Align Technology (ALGN) just gave investors a fresh data point to chew on by rolling out its Invisalign System with mandibular advancement in the Philippines, and the stock quickly climbed about 6% on the news.

See our latest analysis for Align Technology.

The upbeat reaction to the Philippines launch sits against a tougher backdrop, with a roughly 9% one month share price return, but a year to date share price return still down about 28%, and a one year total shareholder return of around minus 36%, suggesting momentum is only just starting to rebuild as investors reassess growth and competitive risks.

If Align’s latest move has you thinking more broadly about healthcare opportunities, this could be a good moment to explore other healthcare stocks that are quietly reshaping patient care and investor expectations.

With shares still well below their highs but trading on improving sentiment, the real debate now is whether Align’s recent weakness leaves the stock undervalued or if today’s price already bakes in a healthier growth trajectory.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 16.4% Undervalued

With Align Technology last closing at $150.93 versus a narrative fair value near $180.50, the current gap sets up a compelling valuation story driven by medium term earnings power.

The continued expansion of clinical indications for Invisalign (such as Invisalign First for teens/kids and palate expanders) and the increasing adoption by general practitioner dentists are broadening Align's addressable market, positioning the company for higher long term revenues and double digit earnings growth as these new segments mature.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, not explosive, revenue growth could still justify a richer earnings multiple and rising margins over time, even as share count falls and cash flows are discounted at a measured rate? The most followed narrative stitches these moving parts together into one bold fair value target, but the exact growth runway, margin lift, and earnings bridge sit just out of sight. Want to see the full playbook behind that gap to intrinsic value and the assumptions it makes about Align’s next few years?

Result: Fair Value of $180.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, that upside case hinges on easing macro pressures and steadier orthodontic demand, both of which are vulnerable to weaker consumer confidence and shifting preferences back toward traditional braces.

Find out about the key risks to this Align Technology narrative.

Another Way to Look at Value

While the narrative suggests Align is about 16% undervalued, its 28.6 times price to earnings ratio actually sits slightly above both peer and industry averages, 27.9 times and 28.4 times, yet below a fair ratio of 30.5 times. This hints at only modest upside and real re rating risk if growth disappoints.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Align Technology Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a fresh narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Align Technology.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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