Stock Analysis

AdaptHealth's (NASDAQ:AHCO) Returns On Capital Not Reflecting Well On The Business

NasdaqCM:AHCO
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If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? In a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Having said that, from a first glance at AdaptHealth (NASDAQ:AHCO) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for AdaptHealth, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.045 = US$216m ÷ (US$5.2b - US$456m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Thus, AdaptHealth has an ROCE of 4.5%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Healthcare industry average of 9.4%.

See our latest analysis for AdaptHealth

roce
NasdaqCM:AHCO Return on Capital Employed April 10th 2023

In the above chart we have measured AdaptHealth's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

SWOT Analysis for AdaptHealth

Strength
  • No major strengths identified for AHCO.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

What Does the ROCE Trend For AdaptHealth Tell Us?

On the surface, the trend of ROCE at AdaptHealth doesn't inspire confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 30% over the last five years. However, given capital employed and revenue have both increased it appears that the business is currently pursuing growth, at the consequence of short term returns. And if the increased capital generates additional returns, the business, and thus shareholders, will benefit in the long run.

On a side note, AdaptHealth has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 8.7% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. What's more, this can reduce some aspects of risk to the business because now the company's suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of its operations. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE.

The Bottom Line

In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we're encouraged to see that AdaptHealth is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. However, despite the promising trends, the stock has fallen 31% over the last three years, so there might be an opportunity here for astute investors. As a result, we'd recommend researching this stock further to uncover what other fundamentals of the business can show us.

One more thing: We've identified 4 warning signs with AdaptHealth (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them would certainly be useful.

While AdaptHealth may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.