Treasury Wine Estates Limited

OTCPK:TSRY.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.0b

Treasury Wine Estates Valuation

Is TSRY.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TSRY.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TSRY.F ($6.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($14.19)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TSRY.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TSRY.F?

Key metric: As TSRY.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TSRY.F. This is calculated by dividing TSRY.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TSRY.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio94.8x
EarningsAU$98.90m
Market CapAU$9.31b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TSRY.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TSRY.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.1x
BF.B Brown-Forman
19.9x3.2%US$19.5b
NAPA Duckhorn Portfolio
28.9x28.1%US$1.6b
MGPI MGP Ingredients
9.5x-3.8%US$975.2m
STZ Constellation Brands
73.9x33.5%US$42.4b
TSRY.F Treasury Wine Estates
94.8x26.8%US$9.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TSRY.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.8x) compared to the peer average (32.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TSRY.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TSRY.F 94.8xIndustry Avg. 17.9xNo. of Companies3PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TSRY.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (94.8x) compared to the Global Beverage industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TSRY.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TSRY.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio94.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TSRY.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TSRY.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$9.15
0%
9.0%US$10.65US$7.42n/a14
Nov ’25US$7.60
US$9.37
+23.3%
10.0%US$11.05US$7.70n/a15
Oct ’25US$7.95
US$9.35
+17.6%
10.0%US$11.01US$7.68n/a15
Sep ’25US$7.62
US$9.45
+24.0%
10.0%US$11.13US$7.76n/a15
Aug ’25US$8.05
US$9.23
+14.6%
9.7%US$10.48US$7.54n/a15
Jul ’25n/a
US$9.35
0%
9.9%US$10.63US$7.64n/a15
Jun ’25US$7.10
US$9.26
+30.4%
11.4%US$11.05US$7.37n/a15
May ’25n/a
US$8.95
0%
12.4%US$11.03US$7.13n/a15
Apr ’25US$7.82
US$8.68
+11.0%
13.3%US$11.03US$6.49n/a15
Mar ’25US$7.80
US$8.58
+10.0%
10.1%US$9.96US$6.53n/a14
Feb ’25US$6.63
US$8.54
+28.9%
10.6%US$9.68US$6.23n/a14
Jan ’25US$7.30
US$8.80
+20.5%
11.5%US$10.39US$6.39n/a13
Dec ’24US$6.93
US$8.47
+22.3%
11.8%US$10.22US$6.19n/a14
Nov ’24n/a
US$8.33
0%
11.6%US$10.13US$6.07US$7.6014
Oct ’24n/a
US$8.35
0%
12.1%US$10.09US$6.40US$7.9515
Sep ’24US$7.38
US$8.35
+13.1%
12.1%US$10.09US$6.40US$7.6215
Aug ’24US$7.43
US$8.71
+17.2%
12.7%US$10.61US$6.65US$8.0516
Jul ’24US$7.48
US$8.70
+16.3%
11.4%US$10.40US$6.52n/a16
Jun ’24US$7.74
US$8.70
+12.3%
11.4%US$10.40US$6.52US$7.1016
May ’24n/a
US$9.63
0%
12.3%US$11.64US$6.73n/a15
Apr ’24US$8.63
US$9.41
+9.1%
10.4%US$10.31US$6.70US$7.8215
Mar ’24US$9.40
US$9.60
+2.1%
10.7%US$10.60US$6.88US$7.8016
Feb ’24n/a
US$9.92
0%
11.5%US$11.29US$7.06US$6.6316
Jan ’24US$9.13
US$9.28
+1.7%
10.7%US$10.70US$7.02US$7.3016
Dec ’23US$9.15
US$9.17
+0.2%
10.7%US$10.63US$6.98US$6.9317
Nov ’23US$8.32
US$8.72
+4.9%
10.6%US$10.10US$6.63n/a17

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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