Stock Analysis

Tootsie Roll Industries' (NYSE:TR) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NYSE:TR
Source: Shutterstock

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. (NYSE:TR) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 22% in the last quarter. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. Unfortunately its return of 25% is below the market return of 68%.

In light of the stock dropping 6.2% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

See our latest analysis for Tootsie Roll Industries

Advertisement

SWOT Analysis for Tootsie Roll Industries

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Food market.
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • TR's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine TR's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Tootsie Roll Industries achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 0.9% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 5% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:TR Earnings Per Share Growth June 30th 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Tootsie Roll Industries' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Tootsie Roll Industries, it has a TSR of 32% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Tootsie Roll Industries shareholders gained a total return of 2.8% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 6% a year, over half a decade) look better. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. Is Tootsie Roll Industries cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Tootsie Roll Industries might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.