The Duckhorn Portfolio, Inc.'s (NYSE:NAPA) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 14.8x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Duckhorn Portfolio certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Duckhorn Portfolio
Is There Any Growth For Duckhorn Portfolio?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Duckhorn Portfolio's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 18% gain to the company's bottom line. EPS has also lifted 20% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.6% each year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10% each year, which is not materially different.
In light of this, it's peculiar that Duckhorn Portfolio's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Duckhorn Portfolio's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted. There could be some unobserved threats to earnings preventing the P/E ratio from matching the outlook. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because these conditions should normally provide more support to the share price.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Duckhorn Portfolio that you need to be mindful of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:NAPA
Excellent balance sheet and fair value.
