Stock Analysis

Is Coca-Cola FEMSA. de (NYSE:KOF) A Risky Investment?

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NYSE:KOF
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The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:KOF) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Coca-Cola FEMSA. de

What Is Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Coca-Cola FEMSA. de had Mex$83.3b of debt, at June 2022, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have Mex$45.6b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about Mex$37.7b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:KOF Debt to Equity History September 29th 2022

How Healthy Is Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Coca-Cola FEMSA. de had liabilities of Mex$62.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of Mex$89.7b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had Mex$45.6b in cash and Mex$17.3b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by Mex$89.6b.

Coca-Cola FEMSA. de has a very large market capitalization of Mex$245.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 1.0 and interest cover of 5.8 times, it seems to us that Coca-Cola FEMSA. de is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. So we'd recommend keeping a close eye on the impact financing costs are having on the business. Notably Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Coca-Cola FEMSA. de generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 84% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

Happily, Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's impressive conversion of EBIT to free cash flow implies it has the upper hand on its debt. And its net debt to EBITDA is good too. All these things considered, it appears that Coca-Cola FEMSA. de can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. Another positive for shareholders is that it pays dividends. So if you like receiving those dividend payments, check Coca-Cola FEMSA. de's dividend history, without delay!

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Coca-Cola FEMSA. de is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About NYSE:KOF

Coca-Cola FEMSA. de

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V., a franchise bottler, produces, markets, sells, and distributes Coca-Cola trademark beverages.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation5
Future Growth2
Past Performance4
Financial Health4
Dividends5

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Undervalued established dividend payer.