Hershey Valuation

Is HSY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HSY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HSY ($188.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($324.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HSY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HSY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

HSY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.4x
PEG Ratio18.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HSY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HSY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
GIS General Mills
14.1x3.5%US$35.2b
KHC Kraft Heinz
13.9x9.1%US$38.9b
MDLZ Mondelez International
20.1x5.4%US$87.7b
MKC McCormick
26.4x7.0%US$19.2b
HSY Hershey
18.4x1.0%US$38.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HSY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HSY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HSY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the US Food industry average (17.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HSY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HSY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.4x
Fair PE Ratio18.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HSY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HSY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$188.94
US$205.79
+8.9%
7.1%US$239.00US$179.00n/a23
Jul ’25US$182.45
US$206.92
+13.4%
7.3%US$239.00US$179.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$197.83
US$206.75
+4.5%
7.9%US$239.00US$170.00n/a24
May ’25US$193.70
US$206.08
+6.4%
7.9%US$238.00US$170.00n/a24
Apr ’25US$198.27
US$209.83
+5.8%
6.5%US$238.00US$183.00n/a24
Mar ’25US$188.05
US$210.37
+11.9%
6.9%US$238.00US$183.00n/a24
Feb ’25US$198.43
US$209.24
+5.4%
8.3%US$248.00US$180.00n/a25
Jan ’25US$186.44
US$212.04
+13.7%
8.3%US$248.00US$180.00n/a24
Dec ’24US$190.98
US$215.83
+13.0%
9.2%US$250.00US$180.00n/a23
Nov ’24US$187.85
US$219.65
+16.9%
9.8%US$253.00US$180.00n/a23
Oct ’24US$200.08
US$252.27
+26.1%
8.3%US$300.00US$196.00n/a22
Sep ’24US$213.85
US$260.15
+21.7%
8.3%US$300.00US$196.00n/a20
Aug ’24US$230.59
US$261.80
+13.5%
8.8%US$300.00US$192.00n/a20
Jul ’24US$249.70
US$272.90
+9.3%
8.6%US$310.00US$192.00US$182.4520
Jun ’24US$259.66
US$271.45
+4.5%
8.8%US$310.00US$192.00US$197.8320
May ’24US$276.35
US$269.45
-2.5%
9.5%US$310.00US$180.00US$193.7020
Apr ’24US$254.41
US$251.75
-1.0%
8.4%US$280.00US$180.00US$198.2720
Mar ’24US$236.65
US$247.24
+4.5%
9.6%US$280.00US$169.00US$188.0521
Feb ’24US$225.30
US$238.96
+6.1%
9.2%US$270.00US$169.00US$198.4321
Jan ’24US$231.57
US$240.58
+3.9%
9.0%US$270.00US$169.00US$186.4421
Dec ’23US$231.88
US$237.39
+2.4%
8.4%US$270.00US$169.00US$190.9821
Nov ’23US$237.76
US$232.15
-2.4%
9.0%US$255.00US$165.00US$187.8520
Oct ’23US$220.47
US$231.95
+5.2%
9.0%US$255.00US$165.00US$200.0820
Sep ’23US$227.56
US$231.63
+1.8%
9.2%US$255.00US$165.00US$213.8519
Aug ’23US$229.78
US$229.00
-0.3%
10.2%US$255.00US$156.00US$230.5919
Jul ’23US$221.00
US$225.65
+2.1%
9.8%US$255.00US$156.00US$249.7020

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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