General Mills (GIS): Examining Valuation Following Reaffirmed 2026 Sales Outlook and Strategic Updates

General Mills (GIS) recently reaffirmed its earnings guidance for fiscal year 2026, projecting that organic net sales will come in somewhere between down 1% and up 1% from last year. The company also outlined that inorganic factors such as business divestitures, acquisitions, currency changes, and a 53rd week in the fiscal calendar are expected to trim about 4% off total net sales growth. This careful reiteration has drawn attention from investors, sparking new conversations about what kind of potential lies ahead for one of America’s most established packaged food giants.

If you’ve been following General Mills in recent months, you’ll have noticed the shares moving mostly sideways to down since the start of the year. Momentum has faded as the stock slipped nearly 21% year-to-date and almost 30% over the past year. Despite high-profile product promotions such as the launch of a Wheaties box featuring championship quarterback Jalen Hurts, the bigger valuation story has been shaped by lackluster fundamentals and cautious guidance rather than headline-grabbing events. The market’s response suggests uncertainty about whether the near-term headwinds are already fully weighed in.

So, is General Mills quietly setting up for a comeback, or is the market correctly pricing in muted growth ahead? Let’s dig deeper into the valuation to find out.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Undervalued

According to the most widely followed narrative, General Mills currently trades at a notable discount to its estimated fair value, even as analysts anticipate declines in revenue and profit growth. Their detailed projections blend tempered earnings expectations with reassurances about the company’s long-term strategy and resilience.

General Mills plans a sizable step-up in investment for fiscal '26, including at least 5% through Holistic Margin Management (HMM) savings and $100 million in additional cost savings. However, reinvestment of these savings into pricing, innovation, in-store activity, and media could delay improvements in net margins and overall earnings in the short term.

Curious how a classic food giant could be labeled "undervalued" in today’s market? There is a numbers-driven playbook behind this verdict, built around future growth bets and a bold profit multiple that breaks from recent history. Ready to see the specific financial levers and assumptions powering this price target? Dive in to discover the strategic moves and forecasts changing the game for General Mills.

Result: Fair Value of $54.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, renewed investment in innovation or unexpected strength from brands like Blue Buffalo could quickly change the outlook and lead to stronger-than-expected growth.

Find out about the key risks to this General Mills narrative.

Another View: The SWS DCF Model Perspective

While the most popular narrative points to General Mills being undervalued based on future earnings estimates, our DCF model offers a different lens. It analyzes expected cash flows and presents its own take on the company’s value. Which approach will prove more accurate as the business evolves?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out General Mills for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own General Mills Narrative

If you see things differently, or want to chart your own course through the data, crafting a personal take takes less than three minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your General Mills research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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