Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP): Valuation Check After New THACO Agri Sourcing Partnership

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP) just signed a long term sourcing partnership with Vietnam based THACO Agri, tying up banana and future pineapple supply to Southeast Asia at a time when industry wide production costs and weather risks are rising.

See our latest analysis for Fresh Del Monte Produce.

That backdrop helps explain why investors have been quietly re-rating Fresh Del Monte Produce, with the share price up 13.97% year to date and a robust 5 year total shareholder return of 67.02%, suggesting momentum is steadily building.

If this strategic move has you thinking about what else might benefit from shifting supply chains and changing demand, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares trading at a discount to both analyst targets and some estimates of intrinsic value, despite stronger profits and a fortified supply chain, the key question now is whether this is a buying opportunity or if markets are already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 18.4% Undervalued

Fresh Del Monte Produce's most followed valuation narrative sees upside from the last close of $37.52, implying investors may be underestimating future earnings power.

Strong recent pricing and ongoing global consumer demand for pineapples (especially premium and proprietary varieties) have supported robust sales and margin expansion, but the current industry wide supply shortage driven by weather disruptions and crop disease could be interpreted by investors as a sustainable tailwind, leading to overestimation of future revenue growth and net margin resilience once supply gradually normalizes.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line assumptions can still justify a richer earnings multiple than today, even with thinner margins ahead and a steeper discount rate? The narrative quietly leans on a specific mix of revenue growth, profitability shift, and re rating that may surprise you. Want to see the exact earnings path and valuation math behind that confidence? Read on to unpack how those moving pieces add up to its fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, resilient demand for premium pineapples and value added products, alongside successful geographic diversification, could sustain pricing power and margins longer than analysts expect.

Find out about the key risks to this Fresh Del Monte Produce narrative.

Build Your Own Fresh Del Monte Produce Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Fresh Del Monte Produce research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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