Benson Hill, Inc. (NYSE:BHIL) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. The results were impressive, with revenues of US$111m exceeding analyst forecasts by 31%, and statutory losses of US$0.15 were likewise much smaller than the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Benson Hill's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$360.8m in 2022. This would be a major 29% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 27% to US$0.74 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$341.4m and losses of US$0.81 per share in 2022. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$7.00, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Benson Hill analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Benson Hill's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 67% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 126% growth over the last year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Benson Hill's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Benson Hill analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Benson Hill that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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