Earnings Beat: Bunge Global SA Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.1% to US$88.54 in the week after its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$60b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Bunge Global surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$14.87 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bunge Global

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eleven analysts covering Bunge Global is for revenues of US$56.6b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 5.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 38% to US$9.52 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$58.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.23 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$118, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Bunge Global, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$141 and the most bearish at US$90.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.0% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 11% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. It's pretty clear that Bunge Global's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bunge Global. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Bunge Global going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Bunge Global that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.